Trading Plan: Will Nifty 50, Bank Nifty decisively break three-day rally amid spiking oil prices, fears of prolonged Fed pause?

Nifty Trading Plan for March 19

• Falling decisively below 23,600–23,500 can bring bears Nifty down to 23,300-23,000
• If Bank Nifty falls below 54,700, 54,100 is the level to watch followed by 53,250
• Broader structure still appears weak

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The sharp fall in global peers, driven by fears of a prolonged pause in the Fed funds rate—at least into 2026—amid inflation worries, and spiking oil prices due to the escalating West Asia conflict, is likely to weigh on Indian equity markets in the coming sessions. In fact, technical and momentum indicators are also not supportive, even though the market rallied over the last three days due to oversold conditions following the recent sharp decline. According to experts, if the Nifty 50 decisively breaks the 23,600–23,500 zone (Wednesday's low and the golden ratio), bears may regain control and drag the index toward 23,300 followed by the 23,000 (near current week's low). However, the 23,800 level is expected to remain a crucial hurdle. Meanwhile, Bank Nifty is also likely to mirror the benchmark index, as a decisive fall below 54,700 (50 percent Fibonacci retracement) could open the door for a decline toward the 54,100, followed by 53,250 zone (Monday's low).

On March 18, the Nifty 50 gained 197 points (0.83 percent) to close at 23,778, while the Bank Nifty rose 450 points (0.82 percent) to 55,326, supported by positive market breadth. About 2,391 shares advanced compared to 582 declining shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities

The benchmark index has been witnessing a pullback rally over the last three trading sessions, marking its longest winning streak in nearly a month. This recovery has been largely driven by short covering and value buying at lower levels, allowing the index to retrace a portion of its recent decline.

However, despite the recent recovery, the broader trend remains bearish. The index continues to form a sequence of lower tops and lower bottoms, highlighting sustained selling pressure at higher levels. Additionally, Nifty is still trading below its crucial short- and medium-term moving averages, suggesting that the prevailing structure has not yet shifted in favour of the bulls.

Momentum indicators also suggest caution. The RSI, although it has recovered from the recent low of 24, is yet to reclaim the 40 mark. The DI- remains comfortably above DI+, highlighting continued bearish dominance, while the MACD line is still below both the zero line and the signal line. For the pullback to sustain, Nifty needs to continue moving higher gradually. Any strong reversal candle from current levels could trigger renewed downside pressure.

Going ahead, the 23,630–23,600 range remains an important support zone. Any decisive breakdown below 23,600 may lead to a resumption of the broader downtrend and renewed selling pressure. However, the 23,850–23,900 zone is expected to act as a key resistance band. A sustainable move above 23,900 could extend the pullback rally towards 24,050.

Key Resistance: 23,850, 23,900, 24,050

Key Support: 23,600, 23,300, 23,000

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures only above 23,830, with a stop-loss at 23,650, targeting 24,150.

Nilesh Jain, VP- Head of Technical and Derivative research at Centrum Finverse

The Nifty index crossed the 23,750 mark on a closing basis. It has retraced 23.6 percent of the entire decline from 26,341 to the recent low, with this level—around 23,750—now achieved. The next key resistance is at 24,250 (38.2 percent retracement), and a sustained move above this level could signal the formation of a short-term bottom.

The RSI, which had slipped into extremely oversold territory below 25, has started to recover, indicating improving momentum. However, the broader trend still reflects a pattern of lower tops and lower bottoms. A decisive break above 24,300 is essential to negate the prevailing bearish structure.

On the downside, immediate support is placed at 23,400. Considering the overall technical setup, further momentum is likely only if Nifty breaks above 23,850.

(Spot levels)

Key Resistance: 23,850, 24,200

Key Support: 23,650 23,400, 23,250, 23,000

Strategy: Nifty Futures can be considered on the long side only above 23,850, with a stop-loss near 23,650, targeting 24,200.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities

The banking benchmark index ended the session on a positive note for the third consecutive trading session, extending its ongoing pullback rally. From its recent low of 53,258, the index has recovered by over 2,000 points, largely driven by short covering and selective buying at lower levels.

This rebound has helped ease some downside pressure; however, the broader technical setup remains cautious. Despite the recovery, Bank Nifty continues to trade below its crucial short- and medium-term moving averages, indicating that the primary trend has not yet turned positive and that the index remains in a corrective phase.

Going ahead, the 54,800–54,700 range will serve as an important support zone. Any decisive breach below this area could attract fresh selling pressure and potentially end the current pullback rally. On the upside, the 55,700–55,800 zone is expected to act as an immediate hurdle.

Key Resistance: 55,700, 55,800

Key Support: 54,800, 54,700, 53,900, 53,400

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures only above 55,450, with a stop-loss at 55,050, targeting 56,250.

Nilesh Jain, VP- Head of Technical and Derivative Research at Centrum Finverse

Bank Nifty showed relative outperformance compared to the Nifty index. The index has recently found strong support near the 53,700 zone, forming a triple-bottom-like structure, which reinforces this level as a crucial support. While there are expectations of a continuation of the short-term pullback, the broader structure still appears weak.

Key Resistance: 56,250, 56,900

Key Support: 54,650, 54,100, 53,250

Strategy: Based on the current technical setup, traders may consider initiating long positions in Bank Nifty Futures only in the 55,200–55,300 range, with a stop-loss below 54,650. A pullback-driven rally towards 56,100 cannot be ruled out in the near term.