Trading Plan: Can Nifty stay above 25,800, Bank Nifty hit fresh record high?

Nifty Trading Plan for February 19

• Nifty 50 may move toward 25,900-26,000 if it sustains above 25,800
• Below 25,800, index may consolidate with 25,650 support
• Bank Nifty may hit a fresh record high soon, but sustainability of it is key to watch

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The improving momentum, sustaining above all key moving averages, and a falling India VIX signal strength in the Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty. If the Nifty 50 sustains above 25,800, a further upmove toward 25,900–26,000 can be seen in the upcoming sessions. However, below this level, the index may consolidate with range-bound trading, with 25,650 acting as support. Meanwhile, considering the technical strength, the Bank Nifty may hit a fresh record high soon, but the sustainability of the same is key to watch. However, consolidation may be seen if it stays below 61,600, according to experts.

On February 18, the Nifty 50 rallied 94 points (0.37 percent) to 25,819, while the Bank Nifty jumped 377 points (0.62 percent) to 61,551. Market breadth was backed by bulls, as about 1,586 shares saw buying interest compared to 1,331 shares that were under pressure on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities

The benchmark Nifty index began the week on a constructive note, taking firm support near the 25,373 level on Monday. Following this, the index staged a steady pullback and has now closed in the green for three consecutive trading sessions, reflecting improved short-term sentiment.

This recovery has also pushed the Nifty back above its key moving averages, indicating a near-term regain of strength. However, it is worth noting that the short-term and medium-term moving averages continue to trade flat, suggesting that the broader trend remains in a consolidation phase rather than a decisive breakout. Momentum indicators are also mirroring this setup by signalling sideways to range-bound movement, hinting that traders may continue to witness non-directional price action unless a strong trigger emerges.

Going ahead, the 25,900–25,950 zone is expected to act as an immediate resistance band for the index. A decisive and sustained move above 25,950 could open the gates for an extended pullback toward the 26,100 mark, where the next supply zone is likely to emerge.

On the downside, the 20-day EMA, placed in the 25,670–25,640 region, will serve as a crucial support area. Any breakdown below this level may invite profit booking and increase the probability of the index slipping back into a consolidation mode.

Overall, while the short-term structure has improved due to the recent recovery, the market may continue to remain range-bound until the Nifty makes a strong move above the mentioned resistance levels.

Key Resistance: 25,900, 25,950, 26,100

Key Support: 25,670, 25,640

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips between 25,780–25,850, with a stop-loss of 25,680, targeting 26,060.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The Nifty gave a consolidation breakout on the 15-minute chart, leading to a rally toward the end of the session on Wednesday. Sentiment has improved significantly over the last three sessions, as the index reclaimed the 25,500 support after a brief decline and then crossed the 25,800 resistance, providing double confirmation of strength.

In the short term, 25,500 is likely to act as a crucial support level. As long as it holds, buyers are likely to dominate. On the higher end, the index may extend gains toward 26,000 and above.

Key Resistance: 26,000, 26,200

Key Support: 25,650, 25,500

Strategy: Buy Nifty 25,900CE of February 24 expiry around Rs 94, with a stop-loss of Rs 68, targeting Rs 135.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities

The banking benchmark index, Bank Nifty, has delivered a robust performance over the last three trading sessions, clearly outperforming the broader frontline indices. On Monday, the index found firm support near its 20-day EMA, which triggered a sharp and sustained upside rally. With this momentum, Bank Nifty now stands just a stone’s throw away from its all-time high, reflecting strong sectoral strength and continued institutional interest.

Adding to this bullish narrative, the Bank Nifty vs Nifty ratio chart has climbed to a 33-month high, underscoring the notable outperformance of banking stocks compared to the broader market. This indicates a decisive shift in market leadership toward the banking space.

From a technical standpoint, the index’s position near record territory keeps all major moving averages strongly aligned in favour of the bulls. Momentum-based indicators are also trending firmly in positive territory, suggesting that the prevailing uptrend remains intact. The technical setup continues to support the view that buyers are firmly in control.

Going forward, Bank Nifty is likely to maintain its upward trajectory. In the short term, the index may look to test the 62,000 mark, with the next potential upside hurdle placed near 62,600. On the downside, the region between 61,100–61,000 is expected to act as a strong support band. Any dip toward this zone may attract buying interest, helping the index retain its bullish momentum.

Key Resistance: 62,000, 62,600

Key Support: 61,100, 61,000

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips between 61,350–61,500, with a stop-loss of 61,000, targeting 62,100.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The banking index has continued its uptrend, moving closer to its all-time high of 61,764. On the daily chart, the index has sustained its consolidation breakout. The RSI is in a bullish crossover and has risen above its previous swing high. Sentiment in the banking space remains extremely positive, with expectations of further upside. On the higher end, the index may move toward 62,000 and possibly higher. On the lower end, support is placed at 61,200.

Key Resistance: 62,000

Key Support: 61,200

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty 61,500CE of February expiry at Rs 328, with a stop-loss of Rs 275, targeting Rs 410.