Trading Plan: Can Nifty 50 reclaim 24,550, Bank Nifty climb toward record high after consolidation?

Nifty Trading Plan

The Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty finished the rangebound trading flat with a positive bias on May 2, while holding the crucial support zones amid elevated VIX (above 18 levels). Both indices stayed firm above all key moving averages despite consolidation. Hence, the Nifty 50 is likely to head toward 24,550, followed by 24,800–24,900 levels, as long as it holds 24,000 strong support, while the broad trading range would be 23,850–24,600 in the short term. As long as the Bank Nifty trades below 56,100, the consolidation may continue with strong support at 54,400. A decisive close on either side of these levels can give firm direction for the index, experts said.

On Friday, May 2, the Nifty 50 rose 12.5 points to 24,347, and the Bank Nifty gained 28 points to 55,115. However, the market breadth favoured bears. A total of 1,487 shares saw selling pressure compared to 1,047 advancing shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Rajesh Bhosale, Technical Analyst at Angel One

From a technical perspective, the daily chart suggests that the Nifty 50 has entered a time-wise consolidation phase, as closing levels have hovered around 24,350 in recent sessions. This pause is considered healthy for the ongoing uptrend, especially after the sharp rally from April lows near 21,700, which had pushed indicators into overbought territory. During such consolidations, momentum traders may find fewer opportunities. Instead of getting caught in intraday swings, traders should consider buying near key supports and booking profits at resistance levels.

Immediate intraday support lies at 24,200, while stronger support is placed in the 24,000–23,800 zone, aligned with the breakout level of the previous monthly swing high and the 200 DSMA. On the resistance side, the Nifty tested the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the entire decline from the all-time high near 24,550, but failed to breach it. A breakout above this hurdle could open the path toward the December swing high of 24,800.

Key Resistance: 24,550, 24,700

Key Support: 24,100, 23,800

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dip around 24,200–24,150, with a stop-loss of 24,070, targeting 24,550 / 24,700.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research, Head Technical Derivatives at Axis Securities

Nifty posted a weekly gain of 307 points. On the weekly chart, the index formed a bullish candle with a higher high and low, indicating sustained momentum. It is approaching key resistance at 24,545 and 24,850 (swing highs of 2024), while immediate support lies at 24,050 (200-day SMA). A broader support zone is near 23,850, aligning with the bullish gap 23,872–23,903 and prior resistance turned support.

A breakout above 24,600 may trigger buying toward 24,850–25,000, while a dip below 24,000–23,850 could lead to profit booking toward 23,500. For the coming week, we expect Nifty to trade within a broader range of 25,000–23,850 with a positive bias. The weekly RSI (Relative Strength Index) remains above its reference line, reinforcing the bullish undertone.

Key Resistance: 24,450, 24,650

Key Support: 24,200, 24,000

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures around 24,200 with a stop-loss of 24,100, targeting 24,450–24,500, or traders may consider deploying a Bull Call Spread strategy to achieve moderate returns while maintaining controlled risk and reward. The strategy involves buying one lot of the 24,300 strike Call option at a price of Rs 169–159 and simultaneously selling one lot of the 24,600 strike Call option at Rs 55–60 of May 8 expiry. The breakeven would be 24,414, with maximum risk at Rs 8,550 and maximum reward at Rs 13,950.

Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investment

The Nifty opened strong with an open = low formation, typically a bullish sign, on last Monday. However, it failed to close above the previous week’s high. The optimism faded sharply on Friday with intense selling pressure, dragging the index to close in the lower third of the day’s range. This sell-off wiped out gains from the last six sessions, leaving behind a wide wick—clear evidence of profit booking. For any further downside, a break below Friday’s low of 24,238 is key. If breached, the index could slide toward the recent swing low of 23,848. On the upside, any rallies will face stiff resistance around the 24,400–24,500 zone. Bulls need strong follow-through to regain control.

Key Resistance: 24,400, 24,500

Key Support: 24,238, 24,050

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures on breakdown below 24,238, with a stop-loss above 24,400, targeting 23,847.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Rajesh Bhosale, Technical Analyst at Angel One

The repeated price rejection, highlighted by the formation of long upper wicks on daily candles from the strong supply zone near the 56,000 mark, indicates rising hesitation within the bull camp at elevated levels. Going forward, a decisive move beyond the well-defined range of 56,000 on the upside or the strong support band at 54,600–54,450 on the downside will be critical in establishing the next directional bias. Until then, rangebound strategies may continue to play out effectively.

Key Resistance: 56,000, 56,300

Key Support: 54,500, 54,000

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dip around 54,200, with a stop-loss of 53,600, targeting 56,000 / 56,300.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research, Head Technical Derivatives at Axis Securities

Bank Nifty finished last week with 451 points in gains. On the weekly chart, there was a small bullish candle with a long upper shadow, indicating that selling pressure emerged near 56,000. However, support at the prior all-time high of 54,467 reinforces it as a key base.

The index is likely to consolidate within the range of 56,000 to 54,000, with 54,400 serving as critical support. This level aligns with a bullish gap between 54,400 and 54,675, which is the swing high from September 24, as well as the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement level from 49,157 to 56,099. A sustained move above 55,500 could prompt buying interest toward 56,000 to 56,200.

Conversely, if the price breaches below 54,600, it may attract selling pressure, pulling the index down toward 54,200 to 53,600. For the week ahead, Bank Nifty is expected to trade within a range of 56,200 to 53,600, exhibiting a mixed bias. Additionally, the weekly RSI indicators continue to trend higher above their reference lines, suggesting a mildly positive undertone.

Key Resistance: 55,300, 55,600

Key Support: 54,800, 54,650

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures near 54,900, with a stop-loss of 54,750, targeting 55,500–55,700.

Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investment

Bank Nifty is trading within a defined no-trade zone, marked by a lower high at 55,958 and a higher swing low at 54,176. A breakout on either side could trigger a sharp 1,500-point move. The broader structure remains positive, with the 10–20 EMA catch-up signaling upward momentum. However, internal weakness is showing—individual banking stocks are struggling to sustain highs, which raises caution. A decisive move above 56,000 could open the path to 57,500. On the flip side, watch dips toward 54,176 closely. If accompanied by rising volume, it could lead to a breakdown and further downside. For now, traders should wait for a clear direction before taking major positions.

Key Resistance: 55,957, 56,097

Key Support: 54,723, 54,173

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips towards 54,723 with a stop-loss below 54,500, or sell aggressively if there is a breakdown below 54,173.