Trading Plan: Can Nifty 50 defend 100-day EMA, Bank Nifty hold Tuesday’s low on monthly F&O expiry day?

Nifty Trading Plan for August 28

Bear put significant pressure on the Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty on August 26 post Trump's notification on tariffs on Indian goods. If the Nifty 50 fails to defend the 100-day EMA (24,635) in the upcoming sessions, a fall toward the August low (24,337) can’t be ruled out. However, staying above it can raise hopes for a fresh leg of upside toward 24,900–25,000 after likely consolidation. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty, if it fails to defend the previous day's low (54,396, which is near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement), can fall toward 53,800, followed by the 200-day EMA (53,500). However, 55,000–55,100 may act as resistance, according to experts who advised a sell-on-rally strategy for both indices.

On August 26, the Nifty 50 plunged 256 points (1.02 percent) to close at 24,712, while the Bank Nifty tanked 689 points (1.25 percent) to 54,450 ahead of the monthly F&O expiry due on August 28. The market breadth remained favourable for bears, with about 2,171 shares declining compared to 599 advancing shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities

The sustainable upmove of the last couple of weeks has encountered strong overhead resistance around the 25,150 levels recently, and that resulted in a sharp reversal on the downside for the Nifty in the last few sessions. The important support of the previous opening upside gap has been tested around the 24,850–24,673 levels, and any significant recovery was not seen from near the supports. The underlying trend of the Nifty remains weak, and the next lower levels to be watched are around 24,600–24,500 in the short term.

Key Resistance: 25,020, 25,150

Key Support: 24,600, 24,350

Strategy: Sell Nifty September Futures near 24,850, with a stop-loss of 25,100, targeting 24,500.

Ashish Kyal, CMT, Founder and CEO of Waves Strategy Advisors

In the previous session, the draft order by Donald Trump to implement an additional tariff of 25% on India effective August 27 created fear, and due to the lack of positive triggers, we saw a sharp fall of more than 200 points. The Nifty has filled the gap which was formed on August 18 and closed near the gap support area. The index is now back below the 50-day exponential moving average. Also, not a single hourly candle has closed above the prior candle’s high in Tuesday’s session, suggesting that there was no sustained pullback.

Nifty closed below the prior day’s low, which keeps the daily trend on the bearish side. Post the sharp fall, the possibility of sudden pullbacks cannot be ruled out. One can use pullbacks as a selling opportunity to aim for 24,650–24,550 levels as long as we do not see a close above the prior day’s high.

Key Resistance: 25,020

Key Support: 24,550

Strategy: Use pullbacks towards 24,770–24,780 as a shorting opportunity with targets of 24,650 followed by 24,550, with a stop-loss of 24,890.

Preeti K Chabra, Founder of Trade Delta

The Nifty index continues to trade within a downward-sloping channel, having slipped below key support levels — the 40-EMA at 24,859 and the 20-SMA at 24,739 (middle Bollinger Band) on the daily chart. The index is now approaching the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 24,651, drawn from the June 30 high of 25,669 to the August 8 low of 24,337. The daily RSI stands at 45.9 and is trending below its signal line, highlighting increasing bearish momentum. On the derivatives side, unwinding of in-the-money put positions also points to a bearish market sentiment.

Key Resistance: 24,859, 25,000

Key Support: 24,651, 24,535

Strategy: Traders may adopt a sell-on-rise approach by shorting Nifty futures near the cash price of 24,850, aiming for a downside target of 24,651, while keeping a stop-loss at 24,930.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities

After the formation of a lower top around the 56,150 levels last week, the Bank Nifty has registered sharp weakness so far this week and is currently trading lower. The crucial lower support of 55,000 levels was broken decisively on Tuesday, and the index closed lower, signaling a weak outlook ahead. The underlying trend of Bank Nifty remains weak, and one may expect further downside down to the next support at 53,500 levels (200-day EMA) in the coming week.

Key Resistance: 55,000, 55,990

Key Support: 54,050, 53,500

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty September Futures near 54,800, with a stop-loss of 55,100, targeting 54,300.

Ashish Kyal, CMT, Founder and CEO of Waves Strategy Advisors

Bank Nifty struggled near the 56,000 mark in the previous week and reversed sharply on the downside, breaking below the important price action support area of 54,900 levels. The index has fallen more than the Nifty and shredded nearly 3 percent in just four trading sessions in the form of lower highs and lower lows. In this fall, public sector banks were the major draggers.

Along with this, the MACD has just shown a bearish crossover, which is a sign of weakness. Prices have retraced more than 23.6% of the entire rally started in March 2025. The next important support is near the 53,800 levels, which is also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement area.

Post the sharp fall, one should use the sell-on-rise method to ride the trend with targets of 54,200 followed by 53,800 levels. On the upside, a break above 55,100 levels will be the first sign of possible short covering.

Key Resistance: 55,100

Key Support: 53,800

Strategy: Short positions can be created if the Bank Nifty moves to 54,640 and breaks below 54,540, with targets of 54,200 followed by 53,800 and a stop-loss of 54,730.

Preeti K Chabra, Founder of Trade Delta

Bank Nifty continues to move within a downward-sloping channel, forming a lower-high, lower-low structure that signals persistent bearish momentum. The index is trading below the 20-SMA at 55,487 (middle Bollinger Band) and has found support near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 54,392, measured from the July 2 high of 57,628 to the April 7 low of 49,156. The daily RSI at 33.4 remains below the signal line, confirming weak momentum. Derivatives data also shows unwinding in in-the-money puts, adding to the bearish outlook.

Key Resistance: 55,068, 55,300

Key Support: 54,392, 54,170

Strategy: Adopt a sell-on-rise approach, short Bank Nifty futures near 54,900 with a downside target of 54,170 and a stop-loss at 55,300.