Trading Plan: Can Nifty 50, Bank Nifty extend downward move for fourth consecutive session?

Nifty Trading Plan for July 14

The Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty extended their downtrend for the third consecutive session, with the former correcting more than the latter. The Nifty 50 broke below short-term moving averages, and weakness in momentum indicators suggests the possibility of further downside. If the index stays below these short-term averages, a fall toward 25,000 is likely. A further drop below that would bring 24,900 into focus as a crucial support. On the higher side, 25,300 is the immediate resistance; sustaining above this level could potentially reverse the trend. Meanwhile, Bank Nifty needs to hold the 56,600 mark (last week’s low) for any rebound beyond 57,000. If it slips below this level, 56,400–56,000 becomes the key support zone, according to experts.

On July 11, the Nifty 50 fell 205 points to close at 25,150, while the Bank Nifty dropped 201 points to 56,755. Bears continued to dominate market breadth, with 1,775 shares declining against 854 advancing on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Rajesh Bhosale, Technical Analyst at Angel One

After two weeks of sideways consolidation, the Nifty 50 finally showed movement—unfortunately for the bulls, in the downward direction. While the broader structural trend remains positive, the short-term trend has turned negative as prices broke below the 20-DEMA, a key average that had provided support for a considerable time. This breakdown suggests the index may remain under pressure in the near term.

From a technical perspective, traders should monitor the retracement levels of the recent up-move from the June swing lows. The 50% retracement lies near 25,000, while the 61.8% retracement (the golden ratio) is around 24,900, aligning with the 50-DEMA and the lower end of a rising channel. This confluence makes 24,900 a crucial support zone.

On the upside, the bearish gap created last Friday in the 25,300–25,350 zone will act as immediate resistance. This level also coincides with the breached 20-day EMA, making it a critical hurdle for recovery attempts. In conclusion, short-term weakness may persist, but the 24,900–25,000 support zone will be vital for a potential turnaround.

Key Resistance: 25,300, 25,350

Key Support: 25,000, 24,900

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips around 25,000, with a stop-loss of 24,870, targeting 25,300 / 25,350.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities

Nifty ended the week with a loss of 311 points. On the weekly chart, the index formed a long bearish candle with a lower high–lower low structure, reflecting persistent weakness. It also closed below the 20-day SMA (25,265) and breached the key support of 25,200, raising the risk of further downside toward 24,750–24,500. However, a decisive close above the 20-day SMA could improve sentiment and open the path to higher levels.

Technical patterns suggest that a sustained move above 25,300 could trigger fresh buying, potentially taking the index toward 25,500–25,800. On the other hand, a break below 25,000 may accelerate selling, dragging it toward 24,750–24,500. We expect the Nifty to trade within a broad 24,500–25,800 range with a negative bias. The weekly RSI and Stochastic indicators have turned bearish, trading below their signal lines, reinforcing a weak undertone.

Key Resistance: 25,300, 25,450

Key Support: 25,050, 24,900

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures around 25,250, with a stop-loss of 25,350, targeting 25,050–25,000.

Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investment

The Nifty 50 closed the week forming its second consecutive bearish candle, testing the weekly fair value area at 25,133, but failing to show a meaningful bounce. For the week ahead, the key level to watch is the recent low of 25,129. A quick sweep and recovery here may be the bulls' only lifeline. A sustained close below 25,129 will likely open the gates for further downside, bringing the daily swing low at 24,733 into focus.

Technically, the index has now closed below both the 8- and 21-day EMAs, a setup that typically leads to a test of the 50-day EMA, currently near 24,837. Momentum indicators are beginning to show increasing selling pressure, warranting caution.

Key Resistance: 25,200, 25,331

Key Support: 25,100, 24,935

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures on a breakdown below 25,100, targeting 24,733, with a stop-loss above 25,200.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Rajesh Bhosale, Technical Analyst at Angel One

While the broader structure remains positive, the rate-sensitive Bank Nifty has shown short-term weakness after reversing from the upper end of a rising wedge pattern. It now hovers near its 20-DEMA and key support at 56,600. If this level fails to hold, the index may slide toward 56,400–56,000, a crucial support zone where bulls may attempt a rebound. Sustained weakness below 56,000 would confirm a breakdown from the wedge, likely triggering a deeper correction.

On the upside, 56,900–57,000 is the immediate resistance, followed by 57,350–57,400.

Key Resistance: 57,200, 57,400

Key Support: 56,400, 56,000

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips around 56,300, with a stop-loss of 55,900, targeting 57,000 / 57,200.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities

Bank Nifty closed 277 points down for the week. On the weekly chart, it formed a bearish candle with a long upper shadow, highlighting selling pressure at higher levels. Despite its relative outperformance compared to Nifty, the index is now at a critical support zone, hovering near its 20-day SMA (56,692). A decisive breakdown below this could trigger profit booking and further decline.

Chart patterns suggest a sustained move above 57,000 may attract buying, potentially pushing the index toward 57,350–57,700. Conversely, a break below 56,300 could intensify selling pressure, dragging the index toward 56,000–55,500. For the coming week, we expect Bank Nifty to trade within a range of 57,700–55,500, with a mixed to negative bias. The weekly RSI remains in negative territory and below its signal line, underscoring waning momentum.

Key Resistance: 57,000, 57,250

Key Support: 56,550, 56,300

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty Futures near 57,000, with a stop-loss of 57,200, targeting 56,500–56,400.

Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investment

For the second straight week, Bank Nifty failed to hold its previous all-time high of 57,049 and has now closed below it decisively, showing clear signs of exhaustion near the highs. The two-week low zone of 56,607–56,627 is now critical support. A sustained move below 56,600 could trigger aggressive selling, targeting the gap area between 56,276–56,223. If that gap is filled, the next level to watch is the psychological 56,000 mark.

Until the index convincingly reclaims 57,049, any bounce is likely to encounter resistance. The current structure calls for caution — protect long positions and be prepared to capitalize on further downside if support levels fail.

Key Resistance: 57,049, 57,200

Key Support: 56,600, 56,276

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty Futures below 56,600, with a stop-loss of 56,800, targeting 56,000.