Trading Plan: Can Nifty 50, Bank Nifty decisively break Monday’s low?

Nifty Trading Plan for December 9

The Nifty 50 appears to have turned cautious after falling below its short-term moving averages, with momentum indicators showing bearish crossovers. According to experts, if the index breaks and sustains below Monday’s low of 25,892, a move toward 25,800 and 25,700 may be seen in the upcoming sessions. However, in case of a rebound, 26,100–26,200 are the levels to watch. Meanwhile, Bank Nifty needs to defend 59,030 (Monday’s low, which coincides with the 20 DEMA) to trigger a rebound toward 59,500–59,700. A convincing breakdown below this level can open the door for 58,900–58,800.

On December 8, the Nifty 50 plunged 226 points (0.86 percent) to 25,961, while the Bank Nifty slipped 539 points (0.90 percent) to 59,239, amid consistent weakness in market breadth. About 2,452 shares saw selling pressure compared to just 434 gainers on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Shitij Gandhi, AVP – Equity Technical Research at SMC Global Securities

Nifty slipped below the 26,000 mark as long unwinding weighed on sentiment. Despite the sharp decline, the index is still hovering around its short-term moving averages on the daily chart, offering some cushion. However, momentum indicators are starting to cool off, signalling fatigue and urging caution in the near term.

On the derivatives front, heavy Call open interest build-up at the 26,200–26,300 strikes indicates a clear supply zone, limiting any immediate upside. With Nifty trading below 26,100, buyers are likely to remain on the back foot. On the downside, a decisive break below 25,800 could open the gates for a deeper pullback toward 25,700–25,600. Until then, the market may continue to drift with a cautious bias.

Key Resistance: 26,100, 26,300

Key Support: 25,900, 25,800

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures on rises near 26,150, with a stop-loss above 26,300 and a target of 25,900.

Vidnyan S Sawant, Head of Research at GEPL Capital

Nifty made a fresh life high at 26,325 last week, showcasing strong upward momentum. However, after touching this new peak, the index faced profit booking at higher levels, as traders preferred to lock in gains rather than chase prices. As a result, Nifty closed Monday’s session just above the previous week’s low, reflecting near-term caution among market participants.

From a technical perspective, the index is currently hovering around its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), reflecting a consolidation phase where neither bulls nor bears hold decisive control. The absence of strong directional movement highlights a sideways trend.

Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to remain below the 60 mark, signalling a lack of bullish momentum. This reinforces the view that Nifty is trading in a range-bound zone, awaiting a fresh trigger—either fundamental or technical—for the next directional move.

Key Resistance: 26,325, 26,550

Key Support: 25,700, 25,500

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips near 25,800 for targets of 26,325 and 26,550, with a stop-loss at 25,700.

Mahesh M Ojha, VP Research & Business Development at Kantilal Chhaganlal Securities

The RSI has slipped toward the 50 level, indicating that the Nifty 50 is losing bullish momentum. The sentiment for Nifty remains weak unless the index closes above 26,060.

Until then, lower consolidation or range-bound movement on the downside may continue.

The index has also closed below the 21-EMA after many sessions, suggesting the continuation of a weak trend unless Nifty shows renewed strength.

Key Resistance: 26,060, 26,150

Key Support: 25,840, 25,770

Strategy: As the market is expected to trade within a tight range, traders can look to buy near the support levels of 25,800–25,850 and sell/book profits near the resistance zone of 26,100–26,150.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Shitij Gandhi, AVP – Equity Technical Research at SMC Global Securities

Bank Nifty also began the week on a weaker footing, extending its corrective trajectory amid cautious global cues. The index slipped below immediate support levels, though it continues to hover around its short-term moving averages on the daily chart. With profit booking dominating, fresh buying interest appears limited, signalling the need for a guarded approach.

With Bank Nifty trading near its key support at the 59,000 mark, the bullish camp is likely to remain defensive. A decisive breakdown below 59,000 could intensify selling pressure and open the door for a decline toward 58,700–58,400. For now, the index appears poised for consolidation with a negative undertone unless key resistance levels are reclaimed.

Key Resistance: 59,800, 60,100

Key Support: 59,200, 59,000

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty Futures on rises near 59,800, with a stop-loss above 60,100 and a target of 59,300.

Vidnyan S Sawant, Head of Research at GEPL Capital

Bank Nifty has been outperforming the benchmark Nifty and closed at a new all-time high last week. On the weekly charts, it continues to maintain a higher high–higher low structure, reflecting a strong and sustained uptrend.

On the daily timeframe, the banking index has respected the Change in Polarity (CIP) zone near the 58,560 level, which now acts as a key support—indicating strength in the ongoing bullish move. Additionally, the RSI remains firmly above 60 across multiple timeframes, further confirming strong positive momentum.

Key Resistance: 60,114, 61,200

Key Support: 58,500, 57,000

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures at CMP for targets of 61,200 and 62,500, with a stop-loss at 58,500.

Mahesh M Ojha, VP Research & Business Development at Kantilal Chhaganlal Securities

The banking index has tested its key 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and formed a small-bodied candle with a prominent lower shadow on the last weekly timeframe, suggesting buying interest at lower levels. However, on the daily chart on Monday, indicators such as the RSI have shown a bearish crossover, and the index has closed below the 10-day EMA, indicating some bearishness.

Key Resistance: 59,500, 59,588, 59,800, 60,010

Key Support: 59,100, 59,000, 58,800, 58,645

Strategy: The broader trend still suggests that buying on dips is a better strategy. Traders can buy Bank Nifty Futures near the support zone of 58,800–58,900, or sell near the resistance levels of 59,500/59,590.