Trade setup for March 11: Top 15 things to know before the opening bell

Nifty Trade Setup

The Nifty 50 climbed to the 20-day EMA (22,666) after a month but could not hold onto the level due to selling pressure at higher levels and closed 92 points lower with above-average volumes on March 10. The market breadth was significantly in favour of the bears amid weak global cues. The chart pattern also signals some negativity, but confirmation will be seen in the following session. Hence, if the index decisively breaks 22,400, the 22,250 level (the low of March 6) is the one to watch on the downside. On the upside, however, the index is expected to face resistance at the 22,650-22,700 zone. Above this, the 22,900-23,000 range is the likely target zone, experts said.

Here are 15 data points we have collated to help you spot profitable trades:

1) Key Levels For The Nifty 50 (22,460)

Resistance based on pivot points: 22,617, 22,675, and 22,770

Support based on pivot points: 22,427, 22,369, and 22,274

Special Formation: The Nifty 50 formed a bearish candlestick pattern with a long upper shadow on the daily charts, indicating selling pressure at higher levels. It resembles a Shooting Star (not a classical one), a bearish reversal pattern, but confirmation is needed in the following session. The index could not sustain above short-term moving averages (10 and 20-day EMAs), which is a negative sign.

2) Key Levels For The Bank Nifty (48,217)

Resistance based on pivot points: 48,495, 48,607, and 48,788

Support based on pivot points: 48,132, 48,020, and 47,839

Resistance based on Fibonacci retracement: 49,408, 50,364

Support based on Fibonacci retracement: 47,881, 46,078

Special Formation: The Bank Nifty also formed a bearish candlestick pattern with a long upper wick on the daily timeframe, with a continuation of lower-high formation for another session, which is negative. Furthermore, the index remained below all key moving averages (5, 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs), with a negative crossover in the momentum indicator RSI (Relative Strength Index at 38.99).

3) Nifty Call Options Data

According to the weekly options data, the maximum Call open interest was seen at the 23,000 strike (with 1.25 crore contracts). This level can act as a key resistance for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 23,500 strike (1.06 crore contracts) and the 22,700 strike (95.91 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 22,700 strike, which saw an addition of 58.93 lakh contracts, followed by the 23,000 and 23,500 strikes, which added 42.9 lakh and 35.91 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 22,800 strike, which shed 6.03 lakh contracts, followed by the 23,150 and 23,550 strikes, which shed 3.22 lakh and 1.29 lakh contracts, respectively.

4) Nifty Put Options Data

On the Put side, the 22,000 strike holds the maximum Put open interest (with 85.9 lakh contracts), which can act as a key support level for the Nifty. It was followed by the 22,200 strike (62.53 lakh contracts) and the 22,300 strike (60.22 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 21,600 strike, which saw an addition of 25.96 lakh contracts, followed by the 21,950 and 22,000 strikes, which added 24.99 lakh and 6.62 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 21,500 strike, which shed 45.77 lakh contracts, followed by the 22,300 and 21,800 strikes, which shed 23.42 lakh and 10.11 lakh contracts, respectively.

5) Bank Nifty Call Options Data

According to the monthly options data, the 49,000 strike holds the maximum Call open interest, with 16.21 lakh contracts. This can act as a key resistance level for the index in the short term. It was followed by the 50,000 strike (14.84 lakh contracts) and the 48,500 strike (11.91 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was visible at the 48,500 strike (with the addition of 2.5 lakh contracts), followed by the 49,500 strike (1.57 lakh contracts) and the 48,300 strike (1.03 lakh contracts). The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 47,400 strike, which shed 2,730 contracts, followed by the 47,000 and 47,600 strikes, which shed 2,280 and 360 contracts, respectively.

6) Bank Nifty Put Options Data

On the Put side, the maximum Put open interest was seen at the 48,000 strike (with 13.22 lakh contracts), which can act as a key support level for the index. This was followed by the 47,000 strike (10.92 lakh contracts) and the 49,000 strike (8.48 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was observed at the 48,300 strike (which added 49,440 contracts), followed by the 47,400 strike (46,260 contracts) and the 48,200 strike (42,630 contracts). The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 49,500 strike, which shed 31,605 contracts, followed by the 48,700 and 46,900 strikes which shed 29,250 and 27,000 contracts, respectively.

7) Funds Flow (Rs crore)

8) Put-Call Ratio

The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR), which indicates the mood of the market, fell further to 0.91 on March 10, against 1.08 in the previous session.

The increasing PCR, or being higher than 0.7 or surpassing 1, means traders are selling more Put options than Call options, which generally indicates the firming up of a bullish sentiment in the market. If the ratio falls below 0.7 or moves towards 0.5, then it indicates selling in Calls is higher than selling in Puts, reflecting a bearish mood in the market.

9) India VIX

The India VIX, the volatility index, jumped 3.82 percent to 13.99, the highest closing level since February 24, giving the bulls some discomfort.

10) Long Build-up (13 Stocks)

A long build-up was seen in 13 stocks. An increase in open interest (OI) and price indicates a build-up of long positions.

11) Long Unwinding (73 Stocks)

73 stocks saw a decline in open interest (OI) along with a fall in price, indicating long unwinding.

12) Short Build-up (124 Stocks)

124 stocks saw an increase in OI along with a fall in price, indicating a build-up of short positions.

13) Short-Covering (11 Stocks)

11 stocks saw short-covering, meaning a decrease in OI, along with a price increase.

14) High Delivery Trades

Here are the stocks that saw a high share of delivery trades. A high share of delivery reflects investing (as opposed to trading) interest in a stock.

15) Stocks Under F&O Ban

Securities banned under the F&O segment include companies where derivative contracts cross 95 percent of the market-wide position limit.

Stocks added to F&O ban: BSE

Stocks retained in F&O ban: Hindustan Copper, Manappuram Finance

Stocks removed from F&O ban: Nil