Technical View: Nifty likely to climb toward 23,650 as long as it holds Tuesday's low, Bank Nifty defends all moving averages

Nifty Technical View

The Nifty 50 rebounded nicely with above-average volumes after a day of correction, taking support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (from March low to high) for another session on April 2. Caution still prevails in the market, especially ahead of fresh tariff announcements by US President Donald Trump later tonight. Hence, experts expect the index to see significant moves on either side of trade. According to them, on the higher side, the 23,550–23,650 zone is to watch, while 23,140 is likely to act as a support zone on the lower side.

The Nifty 50 opened higher at 23,193 and remained in positive territory throughout the session. It touched an intraday high of 23,350 in late trade and finished at 23,332, up 167 points, forming a bullish candlestick pattern resembling an inside bar or bullish Harami-like candle pattern (not a classical one) on the daily charts.

This bullish formation and follow-through upmove from here could confirm this as a reversal pattern, said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.

According to him, Wednesday’s market action signals the possible formation of a higher bottom at 23,136 levels.

However, "US President Donald Trump's tariff decision on India could possibly result in an extreme opening of Indian markets on Thursday, on either side. Immediate support is at 23,100, and the next overhead resistance to be watched is at 23,400 and 23,650 levels," he said.

The weekly derivative data suggested that the Nifty 50 may face resistance at 23,500, while the 23,200–23,000 zone is likely to act as support.

On the Call side, the maximum Call open interest was seen at the 23,500 strike, followed by the 23,300 and 24,000 strikes, with the maximum writing at the 23,300 strike, followed by the 23,350–23,500 strikes. On the Put side, the 23,000 strike holds the maximum open interest, followed by the 23,200 and 22,500 strikes, with the maximum Put writing at the 23,200 strike, and then the 23,300 and 23,000 strikes.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty also closed higher and outperformed the benchmark Nifty 50, rising 521 points or 1 percent to 51,348. The index formed a bullish candlestick pattern on the daily charts and stayed above all key moving averages (10, 20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs), which is a positive sign.

“The last-hour buying has shifted momentum in favour of the bulls, making a rally toward 51,680 highly likely in the coming sessions. On the downside, 51,100 will act as a major support, and only a breach below this level will lead to a retest of the daily overlapping defense at 50,640,” said Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments.

Meanwhile, the India VIX remained in the higher zone considering the event of tariff announcements, signaling some caution for bulls, though it corrected by 0.44 percent to close at 13.72. The fear index still sustained above short-term moving averages (1, 10, and 20-day EMAs).