Technical View: Nifty likely to be rangebound till it crosses 22,800, Bank Nifty hits fresh 9-month low but defends 47,800

Nifty Trend

The Nifty 50 gradually recouped its opening losses following the sell-off in US markets last night and finished moderately higher with above-average volumes on March 11, outperforming the Bank Nifty, which hit a fresh 9-month low intraday. According to experts, the Nifty 50 is likely to be rangebound until it breaches the 22,700-22,800 zone on the higher side or 22,300-22,250 on the lower side. A decisive trend above 22,800 can open doors for 23,000, but below 22,250, the next support is placed at 22,060 (100-week EMA).

The Nifty 50, as expected, opened lower by more than 100 points and took support at 22,300 but gradually recovered these losses as the day progressed. The index turned green in the last couple of hours of trade and closed with a 38-point gain at 22,498. The index formed a bullish candlestick pattern on the daily charts, resembling a bullish 'meeting line' type candle pattern after a small decline, which is a positive indication.

Hence, "further upside from here could confirm the reversal pattern," Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, said.

According to him, after the negative chart pattern like lower tops and bottoms over the last few weeks, the Nifty is now in the process of forming a new higher bottom at 22,300 levels.

"A decisive upmove above the hurdle of 22,700-22,800 levels could confirm the bullish shift, and that could open more upside in the near term. Immediate support is placed at 22,315 levels," he said.

The index climbed above the 5 and 10-day EMA while the momentum indicator RSI (Relative Strength Index 40.81) remained in the lower band. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) showed a positive crossover but sustained in the zero line.

The weekly derivative data suggested that the Nifty 50 may trade in the range of 22,200-22,700 in the near term.

On the options front, the maximum Call open interest was placed at the 23,000 strike, followed by the 22,900 and 22,700 strikes, with the maximum Call writing at the 22,900 strike, and then the 23,000 and 23,300 strikes. On the Put side, 22,200 holds the maximum open interest, followed by the 22,000 and 22,400 strikes, with the maximum writing at the 22,200 strike, and then the 22,400 and 22,350 strikes.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty had a gap-down opening and underperformed the benchmark Nifty 50, hitting a fresh 9-month low of 47,703 intraday. The index showed some 150 points recovery and closed with a 363-point loss at 47,854. It closed above the support of 47,840 and formed a Doji-like candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe.

"This pattern signals indecision but also hints at potential bullish momentum if the index breaks above 48,030. A breakout could drive prices higher toward 48,200 to fill the gap, with 48,839 as the next logical target—marking the recent swing high," Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments, said.

On the downside, according to him, a decisive close below 47,700 would confirm a breakdown, opening the door for further weakness.

The India VIX, the fear factor, closed above the 14 mark at 14.07, up 0.63 percent, making the bulls further uncomfortable.