Technical View: Nifty fails to defend trendline breakout, selling pressure could intensify if index breaks 25,000

Nifty Outlook

The Nifty 50 cheered the news of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, along with a sharp fall in oil prices, rallying 345 points intraday. However, it could not sustain those gains for long due to profit booking and lingering uncertainty regarding Middle East tensions. The index closed with just a third of a percent gain on June 24, which appears to be a false breakout, signaling potential consolidation in the upcoming sessions.

Key support is seen in the 24,900–24,800 zone, while resistance is placed at 25,300. Sustaining above this resistance could bring a strong bullish bias to the market.

The Nifty 50 opened more than 200 points higher and hit an intraday high of 25,318—the highest level of the current year. However, market participants began booking profits in the second half of the session, causing the index to shed over 300 points from the day’s high before closing at 25,044, up 72 points.

The index failed to hold its breakout above a long downward-sloping trendline (joining the highs of September 27, 2024, and June 11, 2025) and the upper line of the Bollinger Bands (25,212), forming a bearish candle with an upper shadow on the daily charts.

Technically, this market action indicates a false upside breakout attempt of the broader high-low range from the past month around the 25,200 level. This could signal the possibility of further consolidation in the short term before the index resumes an upward trajectory, said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.

However, according to him, the short-term trend of the Nifty remains positive amidst the ongoing rangebound movement. “A further sustainable move above the 25,200–25,300 levels could open the door to a rise towards 25,600 in the near term. Immediate support is placed at 24,900,” he said.

Volatility was also observed ahead of the expiry of the June derivative contracts scheduled for Thursday. Monthly options data suggest the Nifty may remain in the 24,800–25,300 range in the near term, with the broader expected range being 24,500–25,500.

The maximum Call open interest was observed at the 25,200 strike, followed by the 25,500 and 25,100 strikes, with the most significant Call writing at the 25,200 and 25,100 strikes. On the Put side, the 25,000 strike holds the maximum open interest, followed by the 24,800 and 24,500 strikes, with the highest Put writing at the 25,200 strike, followed by the 25,100 and 25,300 strikes.

Bank Nifty

The banking benchmark index, Bank Nifty, also had a positive opening and climbed close to 56,900 intraday but gave up half its gains to close at 56,462, up 403 points. The index formed a small bearish candle with long upper and lower shadows, resembling a high wave or Doji-like candlestick pattern (not a classical one) on the daily charts—signaling indecision among bulls and bears.

Now, “Bank Nifty needs to hold above the 56,250 zone for a potential move towards 56,750, then 57,000 levels, while support is seen at 56,250, followed by 56,000,” said Chandan Taparia, Head – Technical Research and Derivatives at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Meanwhile, the India VIX, the fear gauge, remained below the 15 mark and closed at 13.64, down 2.88 percent, making bulls relatively comfortable.