Technical View: Nifty consolidates after 3-day rally, 25,500 crucial for upward journey; Bank Nifty holds all EMAs ahead of Budget

Nifty outllook on February 1, the Union Budget day

• Weekly options data signals strong resistance for Nifty 50 at 26,000, immediate hurdle at 25,500, while support at 25,000-24,900
• Elevated VIX maintains caution for bulls as market approaches the Union Budget

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The Nifty 50 could not see follow-through buying interest on January 30 and snapped its three-day winning streak amid consolidation ahead of the Union Budget 2026, the much-awaited key economic event scheduled to be presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on February 1. The index remained within the previous day’s trading range throughout the session, but volume stayed strong, and the index consistently held above the 200-day EMA (25,170) for the fourth straight session.

The benchmark Nifty 50 needs to surpass and sustain above the immediate crucial hurdle of 25,450–25,500, as only above this zone could an uptrend be seen toward 25,600 (100-day EMA) and 25,700 (50-day EMA). Until then, consolidation may continue, with the immediate critical support placed at the 200-day EMA. A decisive fall below this level could drive the index down toward 24,900, the current month’s low, according to experts.

After opening sharply lower at 25,248, the Nifty 50 shifted into rangebound action. The index attempted a recovery in the later part of the session and finally finished at 25,321, down 98 points (0.39 percent). It formed a bullish candle with minor upper and lower shadows on the daily timeframe, indicating consolidation near the crucial resistance.

According to Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, the outcome of the Budget could open fresh moves in the market on either side. “Immediate support is placed at 25,200, and a sustainable upmove above the 25,450–25,500 levels could possibly open a sharp upside ahead,” he said.

According to the weekly options data, strong resistance for the Nifty 50 is placed at 26,000 in the short term, with an immediate hurdle at 25,500, while support is placed at 25,000.

The maximum Call open interest was placed at the 26,000 strike, followed by the 25,500 and 25,800 strikes, with the maximum Call writing seen at the 26,000, 25,300, and 25,500 strikes. Meanwhile, the 25,000 strike holds the maximum Put open interest, followed by the 25,300 and 24,900 strikes, with the maximum Put writing at the 24,900, 25,300, and 25,350 strikes.

The market will remain open on February 1, Sunday for Union Budget.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty also traded within the previous day’s range and closed lower for the first time in the current week. Notably, despite this profit booking, it stayed above all key moving averages as well as the midline of the Bollinger Bands ahead of the Union Budget.

The banking index declined 347 points (0.58 percent) to 59,610 and formed a small-bodied bullish candle with a long upper shadow on the daily charts, indicating profit booking amid consolidation.

According to Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, the immediate resistance is placed in the 60,000–60,100 zone, making it a crucial supply area to watch. Any sustained move above this zone could lead the index to continue its up move toward 60,400, followed by 60,800 in the near term.

On the downside, the 20-day EMA zone of 59,400–59,300 is likely to act as strong support, he said.

Meanwhile, the fear gauge, India VIX, rose 1.96 percent to 13.63 after a two-day fall and remained above all key moving averages, maintaining caution for bulls as the market approaches the Union Budget.