Shrimp stocks swim ahead, but will they ride the wave or be washed out?

The U.S.A is one of India’s most significant export destination for shrimp.

The Indian shrimp industry could face a material hit as the U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff burdens weigh on the sector. However, despite the pressure, fishery stocks have been swimming against the tide, rising up to 15 percent over the past month.

India’s competitive advantage lies in its operational efficiency, particularly in processing and value addition. Unlike competing nations that primarily export raw shrimp to the U.S., India has established a strong foothold in the processed and value-added segments.

In the calendar year 2024, processed shrimp constituted over 50 percent of total U.S. shrimp imports, with value-added products accounting for 23 percent. Of this, India’s share was roughly around 60 percent of the U.S. demand for processed shrimp and around 28 percent for value-added shrimp, which is higher than peers, noted CareEdge Ratings.

However, with the imposition of Trump’s tariffs from August 27, 2025 onwards, the domestic seafood moderators are likely to see a drop in volumes exported to the U.S., hitting the topline growth.

A slowdown in fresh orders has already begun, the ratings agency noted. “Looking ahead, if the current tariff levels persist, the adverse impact on exports is expected to be more pronounced in the next financial year. Export volumes could eventually decline by up to 15 percent, although this would depend on the exporters’ ability to diversify into alternative markets,” said the financial services firm in a report.

Impact of tariffs on firms

In FY25, Avanti Feeds generated 77 percent of its total revenue from the North American market, a slight decline from 80 percent in the corresponding quarter a year earlier. Meanwhile, Apex Frozen Foods reported that the U.S. accounted for 53 percent of its overall revenue.

According to India Ratings and Research, based on an analysis of seven major shrimp players, the aggregate revenue could decline 12 percent on-year, while margins could moderate by 160 basis points in FY26. CARE Edge Ratings expects the operating margins to take a hit of up to 150 basis points.

Domestic brokerage Geojit Financial Services remained bullish on key player, Apex Frozen Foods. The brokerage noted that the firm has been actively diversifying its market presence, helping mitigate risks from a high US dependency amid tariff challenges. The contribution of non-US markets to total sales has risen to ~45 percent, up from ~24 percent over the past seven years.

Further,  Apex’s proactive shift toward EU, Canada, and UK markets, coupled with stable global shrimp prices and declining freight costs, positions it well to navigate volatility. Apex targets ~10 percent share from the UK market, compared to five percent in FY25) post-FTA.

“Additionally, the recent approval from the EU for the RTE (ready-to-eat) product facilities unlocks new opportunities, expected to drive incremental growth in the coming quarters, and expects ~30 percent growth in EU sales in the first year post-approval, translating to ~2,500 MT additional volume as per the company,” noted the brokerage.

So far, shares of Apex Frozen Foods have gained over 12 percent over the past month, while Avanti Frozen Foods stock is up over 15 percent. The gains were buoyed by hopes of diplomatic tensions between India and U.S. easing, and the possible removal of the 25 percent penalty tariff imposed on India. U.S. President Trump announced that the tariff talks with India was set to resume, and calling PM Narendra Modi a "very good friend."

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