Sensex, Nifty set for a cautious start after RBI-fueled rebound - Key levels to track on Oct 3

Muted start likely for markets

Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty are likely to open on a subdued note on October 3 after a day’s break. As of 7:40 am, the GIFT Nifty was flat with a slight negative bias, quoting at 24,943, down 7 points.

Markets had staged a smart comeback on October 1, snapping an eight-day losing streak, after the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept the repo rate and policy stance unchanged for the second consecutive meeting. The sharp rally was led by banking stocks, with HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Kotak Mahindra Bank emerging as the top contributors to gains in both Sensex and Nifty 50.

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The RBI’s move was in line with expectations, but two factors boosted sentiment: an upward revision in India’s growth outlook and a softer inflation forecast. The central bank raised FY26 GDP growth projections to 6.8 percent from 6.5 percent earlier and trimmed the inflation estimate to 2.6 percent from 3.1 percent.

On the technical front, Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, noted that the Nifty 50 climbed to 24,836, forming a strong bullish pattern around the 24,600 support zone. This signals a revival of momentum, with the next resistance levels seen at 25,000–25,200, while 24,700 now serves as the key support.

Going ahead, the Bank Nifty too showed strength, closing above 55,300, with buying interest picking up again. Analysts see scope for the index to climb toward 55,800–56,000, with the 100-day moving average at 55,881 acting as a support cushion.

Global cues also remain supportive. Wall Street’s three major indexes ended at record highs on Thursday, buoyed by gains in technology stocks, even as investors tracked private labor market data during the second day of the US government shutdown.

Asian markets opened on a positive note this morning as optimism around artificial intelligence continued to fuel global equities to fresh records.

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