Sensex, Nifty eye third straight day of gains: Key levels to watch today

For Bank Nifty, the index has surged past the 49,000 mark and breached the crucial 50-EMA at 49,200, strengthening the positive bias.

Benchmark indices Nifty and Sensex are set to extend their strong weekly momentum into a third session on Wednesday, with GIFT Nifty hinting at a firm start. March has provided a much-needed breather, with Nifty up 3.2 percent so far, narrowing its losses from late September to 13.1 percent from 16.4 percent.

The frontline indices staged a massive rally on March 18, posting its biggest single-day gain in two months. The Sensex surged as much as 1,200 points while the Nifty closed over 300 points higher at about 22,800. A sharp market rally on March 18 was driven by massive short covering by foreign investors, who turned net buyers of Indian equities after a month of heavy selling.

All sectoral indices ended with robust gains. Nifty Auto, Bank, PSU Bank, FMCG and Metal were the top performers, rising in the range of 1.5-2 percent each during the session. Nifty Pharma Consumer Durables, and Energy also rallied over 1 percent each.

The broader market, represented by the mid and smallcap indices, also mirrored positive trends to outperform the frontline indices with gains of 2.2 percent and 2.71 percent, respectively. Despite today's performance, the two are down 14 and 18 percent, respectively, year-to-date.

Experts say that positive domestic indicators—such as a rebound in Q3 FY25 GDP growth to 6.2 percent, a 5.1 percent rise in IIP, a 16 percent jump in gross tax collections, a narrowing trade deficit, and CPI inflation easing to 3.6 percent—suggest a favourable macroeconomic backdrop. However, these tailwinds may not be strong enough to drive a sustained rally, given the looming risks from global tariff wars.

Markets now turn their focus to the Federal Reserve's March FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, where investors widely expect rates to remain unchanged at 4.25–4.5 percent. Attention will also be on the updated economic projections set to be released on Wednesday.

Here are key levels to watch out for in the March 19 trading session

Nifty has formed a strong bullish candle on the daily chart, decisively breaching the 22,650 hurdle, supported by broader market participation. With sentiment improving, there is scope for further upside, with 23,000 acting as a key resistance. A decisive move above this level could open the door for targets of 23,800 and 24,200 in the coming days.

For Bank Nifty, the index has surged past the 49,000 mark and breached the crucial 50-EMA at 49,200, strengthening the positive bias. Frontline banking stocks like ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, and Kotak Bank are showing technical strength, which could support further gains. Key support for the day is at 22,700, while resistance stands at 23,000. The expected trading range for Bank Nifty is 48,900–50,000. The Bank Nifty recorded a 2 percent gain in the previous session.

The Nifty Put-Call Ratio (PCR), a key market sentiment indicator, rose to 1.29 on March 18—the highest since December 3, 2024—up from 1.05 in the previous session. A rising PCR above 0.7 or surpassing 1 suggests traders are selling more Puts than Calls, signaling a strengthening bullish sentiment. Conversely, a drop below 0.7 or toward 0.5 indicates higher Call selling, reflecting a bearish market outlook.

The India VIX, the fear gauge that measures expected market anxiety, dropped by 1.53 percent to 13.21 (the lowest level since December 24, 2024) and sustained below all key moving averages, further reassuring the bulls.