Sensex, Nifty eye mild gains at open; key levels to watch on July 15

In the previous session, equity indices closed the session mildly in the red after IT stocks tumbled amid weak Q1 earnings.

Benchmark indices Nifty and Sensex are set for a muted yet positive start on July 15, offering a glimmer of relief after four straight sessions of losses. Any bounce back today may be more of a breather than a trend reversal, with trade tariff worries still weighing on sentiment.

In the previous session, equity indices closed the session mildly in the red after IT stocks tumbled amid weak Q1 earnings. The broader market outperformed the frontline indices with gains of a percent, each.

On July 14, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) were net sellers to the tune of Rs 1,614 crore worth of shares, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) net bought Rs 1,787 crore worth.

Structurally, market breadth remains feeble, with bulls failing to show commitment. The earlier support zone of 25,200–25,300 has now reversed into a resistance zone. A decisive break below today’s low of 25,001 could further deteriorate the technical setup. On the flip side, only a sustained move above 25,350 could signal the potential for recovery, marking this level as a key hurdle. The momentum indicator RSI has slipped below 50, for the first time in over three months, underscoring weakening bullish strength.

Adding to the cautious tone, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have consistently accumulated short positions in index futures, reflecting ongoing institutional scepticism.

"For a meaningful trend reversal to unfold, a decisive close above the 57,300–57,370 resistance band for the Bank Nifty is essential. Until such confirmation emerges, upward moves may remain capped. The index now hovers near a key support zone at 56,600. A breakdown below this area could further weaken the technical structure and expose the index to a downside target of 56,000. Conversely, a breakout above the 57,300–57,350 resistance band would be required to invalidate the current weakness and reignite bullish interest," Dhupesh Dhameja of SAMCO Securities said.

Despite the index’s downward move, India VIX rose marginally by 1.38 percent to 11.98 but remains well below the psychological threshold of 15. This muted rise in volatility suggests that while selling persists, there is no sign of panic-driven exits. The current low-volatility regime indicates a lack of directional conviction, favouring a measured decline rather than sharp corrections.

The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) remains unchanged at 0.54, underscoring heightened call writing activity. This low PCR suggests a continued bearish undertone, and any additional selling may push the PCR into the oversold territory.