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Rupee ends near record low at 76.83 per dollar

ICICIdirect believes weakness may continue and one should utilise downsides in the pair to initiate long positions.

April 21, 2020 / 14:11 IST

Indian rupee has finished the day near the record low level amid selling seen in the domestic equity market on the back of drop in the oil prices.

It has ended 29 paise lower at 76.83 per dollar against Monday's close of 76.54.

At 14:10 IST, the Sensex was down 1,150.50 points or 3.64% at 30497.50, and the Nifty was down 319.70 points or 3.45% at 8942.15.

The dollar gave up some gains against the currencies of oil producers after US crude futures pared some of their massive losses in Asia, but the historic collapse in energy demand is likely to keep safe-haven assets well supported.

Oil prices rebounded on Tuesday, with US crude turning positive after trading below $0 for the first time ever, but gains were capped amid unresolved concerns about how the market can cope with fuel demand decimated by the coronavirus pandemic.

"Indian Rupee might appreciate a bit in short term on softening of crude oil prices and rise in risk appetite in the domestic markets as talks of partial lifting of lockdown gain currency. Further, RBI announced measures to provide liquidity. Central bank will inject Rs 50,000 crore through LTRO. It has even slashed Reverse Repo rate by 25bps," said Praveen Singh, AVP - Fundamental Research, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

"However, in the long term rupee may depreciate to 80 on strong dollar and continued FII outflows from local shares. Contagion status is key factor for the financial markets."

"The cases of COVID-19 is rising day by day across globe. Number of cases in India exceeded 17000 mark and death toll to 550. Investors are also concerned about the impact of lock down across country on economy."

"IMF said global economy will suffer worst financial crisis since Great Depression, and forecasted global economy to contract by 3% and projected zero growth in Asia in 2020. This forecast is based on the assumption that outbreaks will peak in Q2, which means that global economy could be in for a much worse scenario should the outbreak peak come later. IMF slashed India growth projection for FY21 to 1.9% from 5.8% projected in January," he added.

Gold prices slipped on Tuesday, having risen as much as 1% in the previous session as the dollar firmed, although losses were capped by a fragile equities market.

The rupee has failed to exhibit any strength. It is trading near life-time lows despite the dollar index continuing to hover around 100 levels. We believe weakness may continue and one should utilise downsides in the pair to initiate long positions, said ICICIdirect.
Rakesh Patil
first published: Apr 21, 2020 10:14 am

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