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Rupee ends 46 paise higher at 76.40 per dollar

The extent of foreign equity outflows are not likely to be as much as those seen last month, and that could ease some pressure on the rupee, says Sugandha Sachdeva VP-Metals, Energy & Currency Research, Religare Broking.
April 17, 2020 / 14:38 IST

Indian rupee ended 46 paise higher by at 76.51 per dollar, after some key measures announced by RBI to inject the much needed liquidity in the system.

It opened higher by 30 paise at 76.56 per dollar against previous close of 76.86.

On April 16, the rupee ended at fresh record low at 76.86 per dollar.

The Indian equity market trading higher with Sensex rose 678.85 points at 31281.46, while Nifty up 196 points at 9188.80.

"Rupee touched life time low at 76.86 against dollar. This is due to the lower India growth forecast and also the lower interest rate in India. FII outflow was around USD 4.9 bilion of Indian shares so far in March and this is surpass the 2008 figures," said Anuj Gupta DVP Commodities and Currencies Research, Angel Broking.

"Upcoming GDP and IIP data may be lower in India due to the lower industrial activity and lockdown in India may reduces spendings. Lower demand may also be the reason of the big dent on the indian economy. However, lower crude prices and good monsoon expectation may support the Indian economy further," he added.

The dollar slipped on Friday after a media report on early signs that a COVID-19 treatment drug was working, as well as optimism about re-opening the world’s largest economy, encouraged investors in to riskier currencies, reported Reuters.

Oil prices rose on Friday with Brent gaining nearly 3% after President Donald Trump laid out guidelines on reviving a U.S. economy ravaged by the coronavirus pandemic that has punched a huge hole in global demand for crude and refined products, it added.

"Currently, the concerns around the coronavirus and the consequent economic distress is weighing on the rupee, which along with outflows from local equities will push the rupee sub-77 mark soon. There is renewed strength in the dollar index, which has pressurized the unit further to a new record low of 76.86 mark. On the other hand, market participants are looking forward to a second round of stimulus from the federal government, and that could trigger some gains in the rupee," said Sugandha Sachdeva VP-Metals, Energy & Currency Research, Religare Broking.

"The domestic unit is likely to trade in the 75.30 – 78.00 band in the next two weeks. The extent of foreign equity outflows are not likely to be as much as those seen last month, and that could ease some pressure on the rupee. Moreover, the domestic currency has priced in much of the bad news surrounding the coronavirus, and the extent of depreciation in percentage terms may be lower than what was seen in March," she added.

The rupee has remained in a weaker trajectory despite the recovery seen in equities. We believe any decline will remain a buying opportunity till it does not move below 76. One should utilise downsides in the pair to initiate long positions, said ICICIdirect.
Rakesh Patil

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