'Real bear market only in India': Veteran investor Shankar Sharma says Nifty will give zero returns for the next 5 years

Moneycontrol GWS 2025

Ace investor Shankar Sharma held a bearish view on the Indian stock market, saying that the benchmark index Nifty 50 is set to give zero returns from the September 2024 highs for the next four-five years. "The markets will keep you interested for the next five years," the founder of GQuant Investech said during a panel discussion with market expert Samir Arora at the Moneycontrol Global Wealth Summit 2025 in Mumbai.

After Arora said Sharma was "bearish", he replied, "I have no bearish argument. I have been a table-thumping bull on smallcaps. It worked out fantastically well. I changed my view sometime last year."

"The bull market is in the fifth year. Indian market has shelf life of five years. If the bull has run very fast, like in case of our small-caps, that bull is a tired bull which falls at the slightest of trouble. So I was bullish for four and a half years. There are still investments in India, those are unexitable, that's the beauty,” he said.

Shankar added that he tried the sell everything he could in July 2024, when markets recorded strong gains. However, he got stuck with some investments. "I am hoping for a bull market in 2030," he said.

Shankar further added that the term 'bull' has now becoming confusing. To him, the late investor Rakesh Jhunjhunwala was an eternal bull.

Lake return theory in Indian market’s perspective

"Every asset class has a finite amount of reserves in terms of returns. The Indian lake has a capacity of 10-12% percent. After COVID, the lake shot up, the dam was ready to burst. Now the lake is overflowing and will dry up,” he said, explaining the lake return theory in Indian market’s perspective.

The real bear market only in India

“The real bear market is only in India,” Shankar claimed, while adding that it was accentuated in the small-cap segment.

“In my view large caps don't fall 50%, they rather slow down. The grind is going to be different. Large caps will drift down and bring correction in overvaluation,” he added.

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