Moneycontrol Poll: Investors Split on AI Bubble Risk, Gold and Silver Outlook

Precious

Three years after OpenAI ignited the global artificial intelligence boom, markets are increasingly debating whether the generational technology wave is veering into bubble territory — and risking a painful correction.

The latest Moneycontrol Poll Market Outlook Survey 2026 shows sentiment sharply divided. About 43% of respondents see the AI surge as a genuine risk to global markets, while 36% disagree and 20% remain uncertain.

Global equities, led by US stocks, have turned choppy after sharp sell-offs in Nvidia and Oracle, reflecting investor caution around heavy AI-linked capital expenditure and delays in cloud and data-centre projects.

Still, comparisons with the dot-com bust are being pushed back by some investors. Unlike the late-1990s bubble, today’s AI cycle is dominated by cash-rich technology giants such as Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Nvidia — rather than loss-making startups.

Goldman Sachs estimates global AI capex could cross USD 500 billion in 2026, reinforcing the divide between valuation fears and long-term conviction. Meanwhile, Jefferies warned in its latest global assessment that AI capex could cloud the US outlook as funding shifts from balance-sheet cash to debt, raising concerns over long-term returns. Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, has also cautioned that a correction driven by stretched AI valuations is possible within the next two years, even as he remains positive on AI’s long-term impact.

Asian equities have also started 2026 on a strong footing, driven by AI enthusiasm, though concentrated exposure in South Korea, Taiwan, and China has raised volatility risks. China’s semiconductor sector is benefiting from about USD 70 billion in state incentives, while relatively cheaper valuations have attracted global investors back to the region.

What does this mean for India?

AI’s dominance as a global investment theme has been cited as one reason India has underperformed several major global markets. “Money went to AI plays in Korea, China, Japan and Taiwan. We still have no AI plays, so that portion is not coming,” said market veteran Ajay Bagga.

India, with minimal direct AI exposure, has been described as an “anti-AI trade,” meaning it could attract flows if sentiment around AI stocks turns sharply negative. Jefferies characterises India as a “reverse AI capex trade” — a market that avoids heavy infrastructure spending and could benefit if capital rotates away from capital-intensive AI leaders.

Even so, India’s IT companies are not guaranteed beneficiaries. For these stocks to perform in 2026, execution will be critical. Vikas Jain, Head of Research, CLSA, said strong order books must now translate into revenues, with the next few quarters crucial for visibility.

From a broader market perspective, IKIGAI's Pankaj Tibrewal said India is shielded from the downside but also excluded from the upside. “The heavy lifting must come from domestic earnings and deal catalysts,” he said.

Even so, majority of investors in Moneycontrol Poll said Indian markets will beat global markets in 2026, irrespective of global risks. The contrast with 2025’s asset performance is stark. While global equity indices were driven largely by AI-heavy mega-caps, gold surged nearly 60% last year, and silver hit record highs above $59, as investors sought protection from geopolitical stress, fiscal slippage and de-dollarisation trends.

That divergence is shaping 2026 positioning.

Precious metals regain favour

The Moneycontrol poll shows 49% of respondents expect precious metals to outperform equities in 2026, underscoring their appeal as portfolio hedges.

Both gold and silver have started 2026 on firm footing, though short-term moves remain sensitive to US jobs data, dollar swings, and index rebalancing.

In 2025, commodities diverged sharply: precious metals surged to record highs, base metals posted mixed gains, while energy markets weakened amid oversupply. Silver climbed to an all-time high above $59, driven by record inflows and structural supply deficits. Gold rose about 60% in 2025, supported by geopolitical risks, fiscal stress, and accelerating de-dollarisation.

Global brokerages remain broadly constructive. JP Morgan forecasts gold prices to average around USD 5,055 per ounce by Q4 2026, driven by central bank buying, ETF inflows and what it calls emerging structural demand from China and the cryptosphere. Morgan Stanley has raised its gold forecast to USD 4,800, citing Fed easing and a weaker dollar.

Silver remains the higher-risk companion trade. While firms like Goldman Sachs warn of continued volatility after 2025’s sharp gains, supply deficits and rising industrial demand — including from energy transition and technology-linked applications — continue to underpin the longer-term case.

“The US fiscal position continues to deteriorate, keeping real rates structurally low — a historical tailwind for gold,” said Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodities, Kotak Securities. Meanwhile, George Heber Joseph - CIO & CEO Equity, ASK Investment Managers, highlighted silver’s dual role as both a precious and industrial metal, making it uniquely positioned.

Bernstein described gold as a core non-fiat diversification asset but warned that volatility could rise as investor demand fluctuates after a strong 2025. ICICI Securities expects consolidation phases in 2026 but believes strong central bank buying limits downside risks meaningfully.

Consensus expects volatility across asset classes to remain elevated amid geopolitical risks, trade policy shifts, and fluctuations in the dollar.