MC Markets Poll: Experts divided on market bottom, cautious over Trump tariff threat

MC Markets Poll: Experts divided 50:50 on market bottom, remain cautious amidst Trump Tariff threat

Market participants are divided between optimism and uncertainty at a time when tariff tremors are rocking world markets, with Nifty 50 expected to end the year above 22,000 as money managers plan to deploy more cash into equities in coming days, a Moneycontrol market poll showed on April 8.

The poll features responses from around 18 market experts across mutual funds, PMS, Family Offices and leading brokerages. Most experts polled believe that markets may be closer to a bottom, but clarity is yet to emerge with respect to the global impact of tariffs, but they remain largely sanguine about India-specific factors.

“RBI and the government clearly have created tailwinds for discretionary spends to perk up. This could help the markets to get its mojo back. Given the correction, the Indian market valuations have become reasonable. Declining inflation, interest rates, improved liquidity conditions could place the markets in a good stead for the medium term,” said Shashank Khade, Co-Founder and Chief Equity Advisor, Entrust Family Office.

One of the fund managers, Ankita Pathak, Chief Macro and Global Strategist at Ionic Wealth said it is important to look beyond US equities. She added that markets will be watching for triggers indicating a revival. “All eyes should be on central banks and earnings season ahead.”

Here are the key highlights from the survey:

1.      Half the experts unsure if markets have bottomed
When asked whether markets have bottomed out, 50% of the respondents admitted they 'can’t say', highlighting the uncertainty in the global environment. Only 16.7% said the bottom is in place, while an equal number said that the markets haven’t bottomed yet. Another 16.7% respondents anticipated a potential 10% downside in 2025.

2.      Cash remains in focus
In response to whether cash is still king, 38.9% of participants said they are holding more than 20% of their portfolio in cash. Close to 27.8% respondents said they are holding less than 5% in cash, and 22.2% said they are in the 5–10% range. Only 11.1% respondents said they are keeping 10–20% portfolio in cash.

3.      Open to deploying more cash into stocks
Around 83.3% of respondents indicated plans to deploy more cash into equities, suggesting a growing optimism or readiness to capitalise on market corrections. Only 5.6% said they wouldn’t be looking to add long-positions in this ongoing volatile phase, and 11.1% remained uncertain.

4.      Nifty seen between 22,000 and 24,000 this year
On where the Nifty level for the end of the year, 66.7% respondents said they expect it to settle in the 22,000–24,000 range, a slightly lower view than what was being factoted in earlier this year, yet the highest among survey options. Another 22.2% see a close between 20,000-22,000, while 11.1% respondents see levels between 18,000-20,000. None of the respondents expects the index to drop below 18,000. Out of the six respondents that hold more than 20 percent in cash, there were three mutual fund and four portfolio managers.

5.      Consumption is top sectoral pick
When it comes to sector preferences, FMCG and Consumer Discretionary emerged as the most favoured, each with 44.4% of the vote. Energy and Consumer Durables followed closely at 33.3%. IT, Capital Goods, and Banks each garnered 22.2%, while Metals and Oil & Gas trailed slightly. No respondents selected Automotive shares as their top pick, reflecting the global sentiment.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.