JPMorgan sees global recession odds at 60% if tariffs sustained

The effect of this tax hike is likely to be magnified — through retaliation, a slide in US business sentiment, and supply chain disruptions,” JPMorgan's top economist said in a note titled, “There will be blood.” Bloomberg

Tariffs the Trump administration announced on US trading partners would likely push the US and possibly the global economy into a recession in 2025 if they remain in place, according to JPMorgan’s top economist.

“The risk of recession in the global economy this year is raised to 60%, up from 40%,” JPMorgan Chief Economist Bruce Kasman said Thursday in a note to clients, calling the tariffs the largest tax hike on US households and businesses since 1968.

“The effect of this tax hike is likely to be magnified — through retaliation, a slide in US business sentiment, and supply chain disruptions,” Kasman said in the note titled, “There will be blood.”

JPMorgan Chief Economist Bruce Kasman. Bloomberg

Several Wall Street firms on Thursday warned of a US recession, with some making it their base case, after President Donald Trump announced major levies on goods imported from countries around the world. Other economists, including those at JPMorgan, said the hit could be big, though they are taking a wait-and-see approach before revising their projections.

The announcement rocked global financial markets, and the S&P 500 suffered its worst day since 2020. Trump, speaking on Air Force One on Thursday afternoon, said he was open to reducing tariffs if trading partners were able to offer something “phenomenal.”

“We are not making immediate changes to our forecasts and want to see the initial implementation and negotiation process that takes hold,” Kasman said in the note.

“However, we view the full implementation of announced policies as a substantial macroeconomic shock not currently incorporated in our forecasts,” he said. “We thus emphasize that these policies, if sustained, would likely push the US and possibly global economy into recession this year.”