Global Wealth Summit 2026: Why Aletheia's Jonathan Wilmot thinks the four-decade bull market is in its last phase

Strategist says the equity bull market that began in 1982 may still have time left but could face another major decline.

• Global equity markets may be nearing the end of a long bull cycle
• Wilmot warns of a possible major decline before the cycle ends
• Rules-based ETF strategies are emerging to manage market stress

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Global equity markets may be approaching the final stage of a long bull cycle that began in the early 1980s, according to Jonathan Wilmot, Global Strategist at Aletheia Capital.

Speaking at the Moneycontrol Global Wealth Summit, Wilmot said the current market cycle still has room to run but could face another significant decline before it ends.

“I think we are probably in the last phase of a long-term bull market that started in 1982.”

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A bull market with interruptions

Wilmot noted that the long rally has already seen two extended bull phases over the past four decades.

“Although it is not over yet, there may still be at least one major decline to come.”

He added that financial markets continue to face multiple conflicting forces.

“There are many conflicting forces at work, and there is often a tendency toward overshooting and exaggeration.”

A difficult environment for investors

Wilmot said investors managing private wealth must constantly balance three competing objectives.

“They always have to balance the difference between growing capital, preserving capital, and funding income.”

He also warned that individual investors often make mistakes during market cycles.

“One of the biggest mistakes private investors make is that they get a little too carried away when things are going well.”

New investment approaches emerging

Wilmot said one approach being explored is a rules-based ETF strategy designed to adjust equity exposure during market stress.

“One approach being developed is the launch of an ETF in the United States in May, based on a system that uses macro signals to outperform equities.”

The idea, he said, is to allow investors to remain invested in equities while temporarily reducing exposure during periods of volatility.