Equities may deliver weak returns for years; oil could touch $150–$200: Shankar Sharma

Shankar Sharma

• Shankar Sharma predicts weak equity returns for next two years
• Oil prices may enter a structural bull phase, posing market risks
• Geopolitical tensions could push oil prices to $150 or $200

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Shankar Sharma cautioned that after a strong rally over the past several years, equity markets could go through a prolonged phase of weaker returns before stabilising.

“My view is that we did very well for four and a half years, so we are going to have another four years which are going to be very poor,” Sharma said while speaking at the second edition of Moneycontrol's Global Wealth Summit 2026. According to him, markets may already be partway through that adjustment period following the strong gains seen earlier.

“I think one and a half to two years are behind us. There are two more years ahead of us before we normalise our overall long-term returns to a more average number of about 10%, which is where the nominal GDP growth is,” he said.

Oil could enter structural bull phase

Sharma also warned that rising crude prices could become a key risk for global markets, particularly amid escalating geopolitical tensions.

“I think oil prices are a new googly in already a lot of googlies that existed in the last two years,” he said. He argued that crude may be entering a structural bull market rather than a cyclical phase after remaining relatively cheap for a long period.

“My view is that it’s a structural bull market in oil. It’s not cyclical because oil has been cheap too long,” Sharma said. Drawing a comparison with the rally in gold prices, he suggested oil could follow a similar trajectory.

“Just as gold was cheap too long — we saw how gold did — now oil is going to be the new gold,” he said.

Sharma, who said he is currently based in the Middle East, added that the ongoing geopolitical conflict may not be resolved quickly. “My take from where I sit in the Middle East is that it’s not an easy war to simply have somebody do a tweet and call it off. I think it’s gone too far now,” he said. “If that happens, you could be looking at $150 or even $200 oil.”