Decisive fall below 24,700 could intensify selling pressure on Nifty, say experts

Sensex and Nifty tumbled nearly 1% on Friday.

The equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty declined nearly 1 percent on Friday amid weak global cues and a rise in crude oil prices following Israel’s strike on Iran’s capital. Investor sentiment remained cautious due to fears of an escalation in tensions between the two countries and continued foreign fund outflows.

The Sensex dropped 573.38 points or 0.7 percent to close at 81,118.60. During morning trade, it had plunged 1,337.39 points or 1.63 percent to 80,354.59. The Nifty declined 169.60 points or 0.68 percent to settle at 24,718.60.

Analysts said a decisive breach below the 24,700 mark could trigger fresh selling pressure in the Nifty.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said the Nifty fell sharply, breaking below its 21-day exponential moving average, but recovered intraday after finding support near recent consolidation lows. "If the index sustains above 24,700, the recovery may continue towards 25,000. However, a decisive fall below 24,700 could lead to further bearish activity," he noted.

Analysts at Bajaj Broking said the Nifty formed a large bearish candle on the weekly chart, indicating profit-booking near the 25,200 level, which corresponds to the 78.6 percent retracement of the previous decline from 26,277 to 21,743. The index is likely to continue its consolidation within the 24,400–25,200 range.

"A breakdown below 24,400 will indicate further weakness. On the upside, 25,000 remains a key resistance. Key support is seen in the 24,500–24,400 zone, which aligns with the 50-day EMA and the lower band of the recent consolidation range," they said.

On Bank Nifty, Bajaj Broking said the index also formed a large bearish candle on the weekly chart, reflecting selling pressure near the 57,000 level. The index closed in the red in four of the five sessions during the week.

"A close below Friday’s low of 55,150 could lead to further downside towards 54,500–54,000. These levels also coincide with the 50-day EMA and the lower band of the recent range. On the upside, 56,000 remains a key resistance; only a move above this level may signal a pause in the ongoing decline," the note added.

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