With India’s monsoon period halfway through, an assessment of the rainfall, which is the lifeblood of the country’s farm sector, so far, shows mixed results.
On a cumulative basis, the pickup in rainfall has been significant in July, also considered the wettest month for India.
Central and southern parts of the country have received ample rainfall and reservoir levels have reached more than comfortable levels.
That said, the spatial distribution is still wanting. For agriculture to perform robustly, it is critical for rainfall to not only be adequate but also have the required coverage on land. That means the distribution of the monsoon also determines how strong the output is from the kharif season.
Analysts at QuantEco Research point out that compared with the long period average, July rainfall was 18 percent higher.
Sowing progress, however, shows that distribution has been uneven. As the above chart from QuantEco shows, rainfall has been in deficit in July when weighted through agriculture production.The month of August now holds the key for kharif output. Here the reservoir levels give comfort.