India’s gasoline and diesel exports hit multi-year highs; strong margins, Europe’s winter demand drive surge: Report

Refiners boost exports to multi-year highs, eye Europe’s winter demand and strong margins

Indian oil refiners are exporting gasoline and diesel at their highest levels in years, taking advantage of expanded crude processing capacity, weaker domestic demand, and a sharp rise in ethanol blending that has freed up fuel for overseas markets, traders and analysts told Reuters.

India, the world’s second-largest crude importer after China, now sources nearly a third of its oil from Russia, where refiners have tapped discounted barrels since Western sanctions on Moscow. The surplus has given refiners the edge to push shipments abroad, with Europe emerging as the biggest beneficiary ahead of winter heating season.

US criticism, India’s defence

Washington has accused New Delhi of profiteering by buying Russian crude cheaply and reselling refined fuels at higher international rates. India has pushed back, arguing that its purchases have helped stabilise volatile global markets following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Gasoline exports hit record

Consultancy Wood Mackenzie estimates India’s crude processing will increase by 130,000–160,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year, taking total runs to 5.51 million bpd.

Gasoline exports are forecast to hit a record around 400,000 bpd in 2025, with data provider Kpler pegging flows at 387,000 bpd, mostly to Asia.

“The growth in gasoline exports is supported by a rising share of ethanol blending in domestic gasoline consumption,” Wood Mackenzie analyst Priti Mehta told Reuters. India increased its ethanol blend to 20 percent in 2025, up from 12 percent last year.

An industry source also told Reuters that exports are also rising because monsoon season has slowed domestic demand while fewer refinery maintenance shutdowns have kept capacity available.

Diesel exports head to Europe

India’s gasoil (diesel) exports are also surging, with analysts expecting them to hit a four-year high in 2025. Most volumes are heading to Europe, where heavy refinery maintenance in both Europe and the Middle East threatens to tighten supplies in the fourth quarter.

Wood Mackenzie forecasts diesel exports at 610,000–630,000 bpd, while Kpler puts the figure closer to 560,000 bpd.

Saudi supply drop adds to India’s opening

India’s export push comes just as Saudi Arabia’s refined product shipments are set to fall by about 300,000 bpd in October–November, consultancy Energy Aspects noted. Several Aramco refineries are slated for maintenance, creating an opening for Indian refiners to expand their footprint.

Europe’s sanctions shift could boost demand

The European Union has already moved to stop importing petroleum products made from Russian crude, under its 18th sanctions package passed in July. After a six-month transition period, the bloc will only accept refined products from allies such as the U.S., Canada, Switzerland, Britain and Norway, further reinforcing India’s position as a key supplier to Europe.