Gold trades near record high as Fed expected to cut rates

Bullion has rallied nearly 40% this year, and recently broke out a spell of range-bound trading to surpass an inflation-adjusted record

Gold held near a record as traders geared up for an anticipated easing of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy this week and looked for clues on further rate cuts this year.

Bullion traded near $3,640 an ounce, after gaining for four consecutive weeks. Traders see a quarter-point cut this week amid signs of labor market weakness, and some potential for reductions extending into next year.

That expectation has driven Treasury yields to the lowest in months, weakened the greenback and supported gold. Lower yields reduce the opportunity cost for holding the metal, while a weaker dollar makes it more affordable. Whether the central bank will challenge these bets is a key question for investors this week.

“Macroeconomic numbers are likely to take over from tariff-related headlines,” ANZ Group Holdings’ Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari said in a note, meaning that investors are watching how US tariffs will impact the nation’s economic growth and inflation data.

Bullion has rallied nearly 40% this year, and recently broke out a spell of range-bound trading to surpass an inflation-adjusted record. Persistent uncertainty over geopolitics and Trump’s tariff agenda, and concerted central bank buying have provided support.

Trump’s unprecedented pressure on the Fed — including his attempt to oust Governor Lisa Cook — is the latest catalyst, which Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sees driving gold to near $5,000 an ounce.

Gold was down 0.2% to $3,635.66 an ounce as of 8:35 a.m. Singapore time. Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was steady. Silver, palladium dipped, while platinum rose above $1,400 to near a decade-high.

Meanwhile, US-China talks entered a second day in Madrid, focusing on trade and security issues. Any easing in trade tensions between world’s two biggest economies should pose some downside risk to gold.

In Asia, an unusual 19% surge in Thai gold exports to Cambodia is raising red flags. The Federation of Thai Industries suspects money laundering may be the culprit.