More air defence systems, more missiles: How India’s defence trade with Russia has quietly shifted

Putin visit will be about defence ties

India’s defence relationship with Russia is undergoing a quiet transformation. Even as Moscow’s share in India’s overall arms imports has fallen sharply over the past decade, New Delhi’s dependence on Russia for specific high-value platforms, particularly missiles and air-defence systems, has risen.

Missile systems accounted for 38 percent of India’s purchases from Russia (excluding aircraft) between 2019 and 2024, up from 17.6 percent in 2007–2012 and 29.8 percent in 2013–2018. The reduced headline dependence thus masks a deeper strategic reliance.

Air defence emerges as the biggest shift

Air-defence systems tell an even more striking story. After recording no imports in this category during the middle period (2013–2018), India’s sourcing from Russia surged to 11.6 percent of total imports from Moscow in 2019–2024 — nearly double the 5.7 percent share in 2007–2012.

A key talking point during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Delhi from December 4–5 will be the S-500 air-defence system, which has gained prominence following Operation Sindoor, where Indian forces deployed the S-400.

Armoured vehicles, engines rise; naval systems decline

Armoured vehicle imports from Russia have rebounded, rising to 35 percent of India’s imports in 2019–2024 after dipping to 22.5 percent in the previous period. Even so, they remain below the nearly 40 percent share seen between 2007 and 2012, reflecting greater domestic production capacity.

Engines have seen a steady, if moderate, increase in share. Conversely, naval weapons, sensors and ships have experienced a sharp drop in Russian contribution, with ship imports plunging from 41.1 percent in 2013–2018 to just 9 percent in the current period.

The trends highlight a broader reorientation in India’s procurement strategy: a diversification of suppliers alongside continued reliance on Moscow for complex, sensitive systems that are not easily substituted.

Changing balance in defence sourcing

Across three procurement cycles between 2007 and 2024, Russia’s dominance has steadily eroded. Its share in India’s total defence imports slipped from 78 percent in 2007–2012 to 62 percent in 2013–2018, and further to 36 percent in 2019–2024.

France, the US and Israel have expanded their presence in India’s procurement programme. France’s share has surged from under 1 percent to 31 percent in the latest period, driven largely by the acquisition of Rafale fighter jets.

India is also expected to discuss Russia’s Su-57 fifth-generation multirole fighter, the only operational stealth aircraft in Moscow’s arsenal. India currently has no fighters with operational stealth capability, unlike the US (F-35) and China (Chengdu J-20 and Shenyang J-35).