Moneycontrol Eco Pulse rises to 51.4 as consumption, manufacturing lift February activity

Moneycontrol Eco Pulse for February

• India’s Eco Pulse Index hits 51.4 in Feb, signaling growth
• Manufacturing, consumption up; retail spending stayed strong
• External risks and infrastructure weakness pose challenges ahead

Did our AI summary help?

India’s economic activity edged higher in February, supported by resilient consumption and a pickup in manufacturing, with the Moneycontrol Eco Pulse Index rising to 51.4 from 51.1 in January.

A reading above 50 signals expansion, indicating that domestic demand remained steady despite emerging weakness in infrastructure activity and external headwinds.

What's moving the index?

The improvement was led primarily by consumption indicators, which remained robust. High-frequency data showed sustained momentum in retail spending, mobility and payments. UPI transactions rose 26.6 percent to 20.39 million, while non-food credit recorded its fastest expansion in 20 months. Growth in credit card spending also accelerated to 1.7 percent from 0.9 percent in the previous month.

The Moneycontrol Eco Pulse tracks nearly 40 high-frequency indicators across services, consumption, industrial activity and external sectors.

Consumption gains were broad-based. Four-wheeler registrations surged 27.2 percent, marking the fastest growth in 16 months, while two-wheeler and tractor sales rose 25.6 percent and 36.8 percent, respectively. Fuel demand also reflected steady activity, with diesel consumption growth picking up to 4.3 percent and petrol consumption holding firm at 6.1 percent.

Manufacturing added to the momentum, with the HSBC Manufacturing PMI rising to a four-month high of 56.9 from 55.4, even as core sector data pointed to a slowdown, highlighting a divergence between infrastructure-heavy industries and broader factory activity.

Labour market indicators also improved. The Naukri Job Index rose 11.9 percent, while urban unemployment eased to 6.6 percent in February. Meanwhile, e-way bill generation accelerated to 18.8 percent from 15.8 percent, signalling stronger goods movement.

However, some sectors showed signs of strain. Natural gas consumption declined 0.4 percent, electricity demand growth slowed to 1.5 percent, and exports remained weak.

External risks are beginning to build. The Iran war has pushed Brent crude up nearly 60 percent since February 28, while the dollar has strengthened 2.3 percent and insurance premiums on shipping have doubled. The government has also diverted LPG supplies towards households, reflecting emerging pressure in energy markets.

The durability of this momentum will hinge on consumption trends. Economists have started to trim FY27 growth forecasts amid prolonged geopolitical uncertainty.

The Moneycontrol Eco Pulse is designed to capture changes in economic momentum by combining indicators into a single monthly measure. The index provides policymakers, market participants, and businesses with an early signal of economic direction ahead of official quarterly GDP data.

Moneycontrol will release the index at the end of every month to provide timely insight into India’s evolving economic landscape. Access the full index data and the methodological note at:

https://www.moneycontrol.com/mc-business-index/