India will have a tough time catching up with Chinese smartphone exports to the US

MAGA has its costs

India would only be able to reach half of China’s smartphone exports to the US even if it sends its entire inventory to the country, according to a Moneycontrol analysis of US trade data.

India exported 15.2 million phones to the US last year, compared with 117 million sent by Beijing. The South Asian nation’s total exports in the category were just a little over 60 million units.

Last week, US President Donald Trump exempted electronics like smartphones, laptops, and desktops from tariffs. While goods entering from China are expected to face 20 percent duty, owing to ‘fentanyl tariffs’ imposed by the US earlier, India and other nations will face no duties.

The decision comes as a breather for the likes of Apple and Samsung, who were staring at high import costs due to heavy dependence on China.

Analysis shows that in the short run, ignoring China may not be so easy for America  as the country has a dominant position in  US imports of these goods categories.

In the case of smartphones, China controlled 82 percent of US imports in terms of volume and 81 percent by value in 2024. India was a distant second with 10.5  and 13.7 percent share, respectively, by way of volumes and value in 2024. Vietnam, the third largest exporter, accounted for 5 and 4.2 percent  of US imports of smartphones in volumes and value.

China dominates in six of the 15 categories where Trump has relaxed tariffs, having at least a 50 percent share of US imports. Besides smartphones, this includes monitors, where China controls 84 percent by way of volumes, and laptops where it has 51 percent share.

In these six categories, exports from China amounted to $95 billion of the $200 billion exports from the world to the US.

The value of trade  exempted by the US per its latest order was 11.4 percent percent of the total, or $389 billion. The US imported $3.4 trillion worth of goods in 2024.

China had 26 percent share in the total trade exemption provided by the US, while India’s share was less than a tenth, at $9.1 billion, of which $7 billion was in smartphones.

On April 13, Trump  warned that the exemptions were likely to be short-lived.

“NOBODY is getting “off the hook” for the unfair Trade Balances, and Non Monetary Tariff Barriers that other Countries have used against us, especially not China which, by far, treats us the worst! There was no Tariff “exception” announced on Friday. These products are subject to the existing 20% Fentanyl Tariffs, and they are just moving to a different Tariff “bucket”, the US president wrote on his social media platform, Truth Social.

“We are taking a look at Semiconductors and the WHOLE ELECTRONICS SUPPLY CHAIN in the upcoming National Security Tariff Investigations. What has been exposed is that we need to make products in the United States, and that we will not be held hostage by other Countries, especially hostile trading Nations like China, which will do everything within its power to disrespect the American People,” he added.