India set for another wet monsoon as rainfall surpasses long-term average yet again

Rainfall to be above normal in 2025, in line with 6-year average

India’s rainfall is expected to follow the trend observed over the past six years, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting that the 2025 monsoon will be 106 percent of the 50-year average, according to a Moneycontrol analysis of data released by the weather agency on May 27.

Between 2019 and 2024, rainfall averaged 103.7 percent of the long-period average (LPA), falling close to the "above normal" threshold. IMD classifies rainfall between 96 and 104 percent of the LPA as normal, while readings above 104 percent are deemed "above normal". Rainfall below 96 percent is considered deficient.

Data indicates that rainfall has been above normal in four of the last six years. In 2024, the monsoon season recorded rainfall that was 8 percent above the LPA. This compares to 6 percent above normal in 2022, 9 percent in 2020, and 10 percent in 2019.

Spatial distribution trends show that central and southern India are once again expected to receive above normal rainfall—consistent with patterns seen over the last six years. From 2019 to 2024, rainfall in central India was 13 percent above average, while the southern peninsula recorded 14 percent above the LPA.

“The southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September, 2025) rainfall is most likely to be above normal over Central India and the South Peninsular region (>106 percent of LPA), normal over Northwest India (92–108 percent of LPA), and below normal over Northeast India,” the IMD said in its May 27 release.

In 2024, central India received 119 percent of its LPA rainfall, while the southern region recorded 114 percent. In contrast, Northeast India is expected to see yet another year of deficient precipitation, with IMD projecting rainfall to be less than 94 percent of the LPA during the June–September season. Over the last six years, the region has averaged rainfall 11 percent below the LPA.

The IMD assigns a 54 percent probability to below normal or deficient rainfall in the northeast. In contrast, the southern peninsula and central India carry a 76 percent and 58 percent probability, respectively, of receiving above normal rainfall during the monsoon season.

India receives nearly 85 percent of its annual precipitation between June and September, a critical period for kharif crop production. While a normal monsoon is generally sufficient for a good harvest, it is not a necessary condition. The timing and spatial distribution of rainfall also play a crucial role in determining agricultural output.

The core monsoon zone—India’s principal foodgrain-growing region—is forecast to receive above normal rainfall. In 2024, this zone recorded 22 percent above normal rainfall. The IMD also predicts June rainfall to be over 8 percent above the LPA, a strong rebound from the 11 percent shortfall observed in June 2023.

Experts caution that July and August are the most critical months for kharif production, and an early monsoon withdrawal could adversely impact crop yields.