From audacious dream to reality: Anand Mahindra on India overtaking Japan to become world’s fourth-largest economy

Mahindra group chairman Anand Mahindra

Anand Mahindra, Chairperson of the Mahindra Group, on Sunday shared his thoughts as India overtakes Japan to become the world’s 4th largest economy.

In a post on X, Anand Mahindra wrote," When I was in business school, the idea of India overtaking Japan in GDP felt like a distant, almost audacious dream. Today, that milestone is no longer theoretical — we’ve become the world’s fourth largest economy."

Anand Mahindra further wrote, " It’s no small achievement. Japan has long been an economic colossus, with legendary productivity and resilience. That we’ve caught up is a testament to the ambition and ingenuity of millions of Indians — across sectors, generations, and geographies."

"But as we celebrate, we must stay dissatisfied. Because India’s next leap must be in per capita GDP, not just overtaking Germany… For us to keep Rising, India needs sustained economic reforms — in governance, infrastructure, manufacturing, education, and capital access," Anand Mahindra said in his post in conclusion.

When I was in business school, the idea of India overtaking Japan in GDP felt like a distant, almost audacious dream. Today, that milestone is no longer theoretical weve become the worlds fourth largest economy.Its no small achievement. Japan has long been an economic pic.twitter.com/28LgnC4Osx
anand mahindra (@anandmahindra) May 25, 2025

Meanwhile, Citing IMF data, NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam said India today is larger than Japan. Till 2024, India was the fifth-largest economy in the world. "It is only the US, China and Germany which are larger than India, and if we stick to what is being planned and what is being thought through, in 2.5-3 years, we will be the third largest economy," Subrahmanyam said.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released in April, had said that India is expected to be the fourth largest economy in the world with a GDP of USD 4.19 trillion in 2025, ahead of Japan. India's nominal GDP for 2025 (FY26) is expected to be USD 4.187 billion marginally more than the likely GDP of Japan which is estimated at USD 4.187 billion, the IMF had said.
According to IMF data, India's per capita income has doubled from USD 1,438 in 2013-14 to USD 2,880 in 2025. The IMF in its WEO report also said the Indian economy is projected to grow at 6.2 per cent in 2025-26, slower than earlier estimated rate of 6.5 per cent, due to escalated trade tensions and global uncertainty.

"For India, the growth outlook is relatively more stable at 6.2 per cent in 2025, supported by private consumption, particularly in rural areas," the IMF had said. According to the report, the global growth is projected at 2.8 per cent in 2025, lower by 0.5 percentage points estimated earlier. In 2026, the global economy is estimated to grow at 3 per cent.

NITI Aayog approach paper titled "Viksit Rajya For Viksit Bharat @ 2047' said from being considered a part of the 'fragile five' economies of the world, India rose to become the top five economies of the world in just a decade. The World Bank defines high-income countries as those whose annual per capita income is more than USD 14,005 (2024- 25). India has the potential and aims to be a high-income country by 2047. The approach paper said a Viksit Bharat @ 2047 will be a USD 30 trillion economy.

"It will have all the attributes of a developed country with a per capita income that is comparable to the high-income countries of the world today,; the paper said. According to the paper, in order to achieve the goal of a Viksit Bharat by 2047, an overall framework for strategic interventions and reforms based on six key building blocks, with a total of 26 themes covered across all the building blocks have been identified.
The six key building blocks are: Macro-Economic Goals and Strategy; Empowered Citizens; A Thriving and Sustainable Economy; Technology and Innovation Leadership; A Global Leader, Vishwa Bandhu; Enabling factors -- Governance, Security and Justice delivery.

*With Agency Inputs