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Tune in on 17th July for the Small Business Virtual Summit with Cisco. Register now!
Last Updated : Jan 12, 2016 12:20 PM IST | Source: IBNLive.com

TCS commentary on clients budget key; buy Infy, HCL: Edelweiss

Sandip Agarwal of Edelweiss Financial Services has a hold on TCS and buy on Infosys, HCL Tech.

Sandip Agarwal, VP-Wholesale Capital Markets, Edelweiss Financial Services in an interview to CNBC-TV18 spoke about his expectations from the Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) Q3 and the impact of Chennai floods on TCS and other IT stocks.

Agarwal says impact of Chennai flood depends on the number of days and would watch out for management commentary on that. However, he expects to the dollar revenues to be hit by 50-80 basis points. Overall, he expects TCS to report quarter on quarter (Q-o-Q) dollar-revenue growth of 0.7 percent in the third quarter.

From the TCS management commentary he would also keenly watch for client budgetary spends and announcements of inorganic acquisitions if any.  It is unlikely that the stock may react sharply to the earnings, says Agarwal.

The house has a buy on Infosys, HCL Tech and a hold on TCS.

India's largest IT services provider Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) is likely to kick-start December quarter earnings on a tepid note.According to a CNBC-TV18 poll, profit in Q3 is expected to be marginally down 0.8 percent at Rs 6005 crore against Rs 6055.2 crore in preceding quarter while revenue is seen at Rs 27575 crore, up 1.5 percent from Rs 27165 crore on sequential basis.

Below is the verbatim transcript of Sandip Agarwal's interview with Latha Venkatesh & Sonia Shenoy on CNBC-TV18.

Latha: Is that largely your expectation as well, about 7 percent in terms of revenue and a possible fall in margins by half a percent?

A: We are expecting quarter-on-quarter growth of 70 bps in dollar terms. However, the challenge is Chennai flood, we do not know how many days of impact is there, but per day impact is not that significant because 65,000 employees are there and if you take 50,000 to software employees out of that then broadly the average of software employees to total employees and then take 50 percent of them which is time and material which basically gets impacted because of disruption largely and apply the offshore billing rates, you will not see a very significant impact on per day basis. So Chennai floods will be more about how many number of days of impact is there. However, that we will come to know only on the call, but broadly seven-ten days would be a fair number to take and if you do that then between 50 bps and 80 bps should be the range and if that is the case then the company should report 1 percent constant currency growth and 70-80 bps dollar growth and that\\'s broadly the expectation is.

However, in my view there is continued challenge in Diligenta still and so insurance is struggling and I do not think Japan has yet stabilised and on the top of that there is a furlough in the quarter particularly in manufacturing, so all these things, when we exited post last quarter number, the expectation for this quarter was 2.5-2 percent growth in this quarter and 2-2.5 percent in next quarter and 8-8.5 percent for the full year but now it looks like if there is a flattish quarter or half a percent growth then that number will be definitely at slight risk but if there is a growth below 0 percent which looks unlikely at this moment then there will be a big challenge because I do not think and it will depend on number of days that disclose on Chennai floods that there could be such a significant impact that it can take the growth to zero or negative range.


More to come
First Published on Jan 12, 2016 10:42 am
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