ICICI Bank Q4 Preview: Profit to grow in double-digits amid stable margins, lower slippages

Shares of ICICI Bank rose by 5 percent between January to March

ICICI Bank, the second-largest private sector lender in India, is expected to post another steady quarter, supported by strong momentum in both loan and deposit growth. Margins are also anticipated to remain broadly healthy, benefiting from the cut in Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) and a sequential decline in slippages. The bank is scheduled to announce its Q4 results on April 19, 2025.

According to Moneycontrol's poll, ICICI Bank’s profit is likely to grow in double digits—by 12.5 percent year-on-year (YoY)—to Rs 12,050 crore in Q4FY25, compared to Rs 10,707 crore in Q4FY24. Similarly, the bank’s net interest income (NII) is expected to rise by 10 percent YoY to Rs 20,955 crore from Rs 19,092 crore in the same quarter last year.

Estimates of analysts polled by Moneycontrol are shown to be in a narrow range, meaning any positive or negative surprises may elicit a sharp reaction in the stock price. Among the brokerages polled, Phillip Capital rolled out the most bullish projections while Elara Capital forecasted the slowest growth for ICICI Bank.

What factors are driving the earnings?

Stable asset quality: The lender is projected to report a sequential decline in slippages for the January to March quarter. Slippages are estimated at Rs 52,000 crore in Q4FY25, compared to Rs 60,850 crore in Q3FY25. As a result, the net non-performing asset (NPA) ratio is likely to remain steady at 0.4 percent in Q4FY25, the same as the previous quarter.

Steady margins: Brokerages expect little to no change in the bank’s net interest margins (NIMs) during the March-ended quarter compared to the same period last year. Analysts at Phillip Capital estimate NIMs to remain flat at 4.25 percent in Q4FY25, though they note some downward pressure due to the recent repo rate cut.

Healthy loan, deposit growth: ICICI Bank’s loan and deposit growth are expected to remain solid in the fourth quarter. According to analysts at Phillip Capital, the bank’s loan book is likely to grow by 14.3 percent YoY to Rs 13.5 lakh crore in Q4FY25. Deposits, on the other hand, are projected to rise by 11.4 percent YoY to Rs 15.7 lakh crore.

What to look out for in the quarterly show?

Investors are expected to closely watch ICICI Bank’s performance in terms of margin growth, loan and deposit book expansion, and the overall forward-looking guidance.

Between January and March, shares of ICICI Bank rose by 5 percent, outperforming the Nifty 50 index, which recorded a 2 percent decline over the same period.