Gold, silver set for a volatile week as US data, Fed signals and Maduro fallout keep investors on edge

According to experts, commodities markets are expected to see aggressive trading on Monday, reflecting volatile geopolitics after the US captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro

Gold and silver prices are expected to see sharp swings in the coming week as investors track key US economic data and assess rising geopolitical uncertainty following the US military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, analysts told news agency PTI.

Market participants will keep a close watch on crucial US indicators such as the ISM Manufacturing data, December ADP employment numbers and the unemployment rate. Comments from several US Federal Reserve officials are also likely to guide expectations around interest rates and influence near-term bullion prices.

“Gold prices are likely to remain volatile in the week ahead as there are bullish as well as bearish factors at play,” said Prathamesh Mallya, DVP – Research, Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies at Angel One.

Experts said commodity markets could see aggressive trading at the start of the week amid volatile geopolitics after US forces captured Maduro and his wife in a military operation, accusing them of drug trafficking.

“The development could jolt global markets, pushing bullion and crude oil prices higher on fears of supply disruptions from Venezuela, which holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves,” one expert said.

After hitting record highs in late December, gold prices corrected sharply last week. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures dropped by Rs 4,112, or 2.94 per cent. Prices had surged to a record Rs 1,40,444 per 10 grams before slipping over 3 per cent to settle at Rs 1,35,761 per 10 grams on Friday.

“Gold prices declined in the past week ending 2nd January 2026 after hitting record highs in late December. The recent correction in gold prices was on account of profit booking at higher levels, low liquidity due to year-end and Christmas holidays,” Mallya said.

He added that gold traded in a wide range of Rs 1,34,000–1,40,000 per 10 grams during the week amid volatile conditions and heavy selling pressure.

Silver prices also reflected similar volatility. On the MCX, silver fell by Rs 3,471, or 1.45 per cent, over the week. After touching a record high of Rs 2,54,174 per kg, prices tumbled by Rs 17,858, or 7.02 per cent, to end at Rs 2,36,316 per kg on Friday.

In the international market, Comex gold futures declined by USD 223.1, or 4.9 per cent, during the holiday-shortened week to close at USD 4,329.6 per ounce. Silver prices dropped even more sharply, falling 8 per cent, or USD 6.18. After hitting a record USD 82.67 per ounce, silver slid 14.1 per cent, or USD 11.65, to settle at USD 71.01 per ounce.

Pankaj Singh, smallcase manager, founder and principal researcher at Smart Wealth AI, said gold’s ability to hold near the USD 4,300-per-ounce level shows rising investor caution amid easing US inflation and continued safe-haven demand.

He noted that silver saw a short-term correction after CME Group raised margin requirements for gold futures, forcing traders to cut leveraged positions and triggering broader selling across Comex.

However, Singh said that as markets enter 2026, key drivers such as monetary uncertainty, geopolitical risks and policy-led capital reallocation remain intact.

On the outlook for the year, he said gold prices could rise between 10 and 60 per cent in 2026, though sharp interim corrections of up to 20 per cent are possible. Silver faces a downside risk of 5–30 per cent, but strong industrial demand could drive prices up as much as 40 per cent if supply tightness continues.

“Structurally bullish, policy-driven precious metals cycle may continue, but risk of significant corrections is also possible,” Singh said.

Investors are now expected to closely track the interplay between US economic data and the Fed’s stance, while escalating geopolitical risks could keep precious metal markets volatile in the near term.