China’s emissions may start to slide in 2030 on green investment

China is due to announce its 2035 climate goals ahead of the COP30 talks in Brazil this year, addressing the carbon footprint of its economy at large, including non-CO2 greenhouse gases.

China’s emissions could decline by 1.6 billion tons by 2030 if the country manages to mobilize 17.5 trillion yuan ($2.5 trillion) in green investments over the next five years, according to the China International Capital Corporation.

The leading investment bank foresees the country’s emissions peaking in 2028 at 11.3 billion tons, it said in a research note on Monday.

China, which produces about one third of the world’s emissions, is due to announce its 2035 climate goals ahead of the COP30 talks in Brazil this year, addressing the carbon footprint of its economy at large, including non-CO2 greenhouse gases.

The country’s energy transition is expected to face steep challenges as rebounding coal generation affects efforts to control emissions. Policy plans to help heavy industries decarbonize have also taken a hit, as faltering demand and trade tensions impact the economy.

To achieve its goal to cut carbon intensity by 65% by 2030 from 2005, China will need to boost green investment by 40% to 3.5 trillion yuan per year through the end of the decade, supporting industries such as renewables, electrification and industrial restructuring, according to the note.