Overall, the wait-and-watch policy of the RBI is prudent as it factors in incoming data prints into its reaction function.
While the MPC voted unanimously to keep policy rates unchanged, a couple of MPC members expressed their views for changing the policy stance from ‘neutral’ to ‘accommodative’.
Plus, who is paying the tariffs
Given the backdrop, the commentary by the RBI Governor was dovish as compared to neutral to hawkish in August policy.
High-frequency data has shown that manufacturing PMI, GST collections and auto sales trends are upbeat, while digital payments growth has moderated a bit, in September.
If the RBI opts to hold repo rate at 5.50 percent this time with a softer communication tone, it could strike the right balance and achieve its policy objectives and will be a very welcome move.
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