Indian market & Rupee see sharp recovery | Brent Oil up 5% | Global markets fall on geopolitical risk
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) began the new financial year on a weak note, remaining net sellers as they offloaded equities worth ₹8,331 crore on April 1. However, the selling pressure was partly offset by Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs), who purchased equities worth over ₹7,000 crore.
HCL Technologies, Tech Mahindra, TCS, Tata Consumer, Wipro were among top gainers on the Nifty, while losers were Eternal, Asian Paints, Eicher Motors, Bajaj Auto and Sun Pharma. Nifty Midcap index fell 0.3 percent and Smallcap index fell 0.4 percent. Among sectors IT index rose 2.6%, realty up 1%, while auto, PSU Bank, oil & gas, pharma, consumer durables shed 1% each.
Nifty 50 needs to witness follow-through buying interest in the upcoming sessions for a move towards the 23,000–23,200 zone, with 23,470 acting as a crucial hurdle for negating the bearish bias. However, the 22,500–22,300 zone can act as a support area.
A large part of India’s quality universe is domestic consumer-facing, and if the monsoon remains favourable this year, we expect a meaningful demand revival across several of these businesses, said Narnolia's Shailendra Kumar.
Overall, the setup remains bearish, although there has been some improvement in risk appetite. The Nifty 50 needs to extend its upward move and fill Monday’s bearish gap by surpassing the 22,800–22,850 zone to pave the way for an upmove toward 23,000–23,200.
Despite the positive close, the formation of a bearish candle by the Nifty 50 on the daily chart signals a strong presence of sellers at higher levels.
Except pharma (down 1%), all other sectoral indices ended in the green with defence index surged more than 5%, capital goods, media, PSU Bank indices rose 3% each, while auto, consumer durables, IT, metal, realty, FMCG, telecom, Private Bank up 1-2%.
Markets staged a relief rebound after two consecutive sessions of decline, but the momentum faded from intraday highs as profit booking kicked in. Benchmark indices slipped notably from peak levels, with the Nifty down 200 points and the Sensex off 700 points, while Bank Nifty also gave up 600 points from the day’s high. Despite the pullback, the overall market breadth remained firmly positive. Except for the pharma pack, all sectoral indices traded in the green, led by strong buying interest in metal and PSU banking stocks. Broader markets continued to outperform, with smallcaps showing resilience and leading the gains.
Global markets are rallying on renewed hopes of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Comments from Donald Trump suggesting the US could withdraw from the conflict within “two or three weeks” and signals from Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian that Iran is ready to end the war with the US and Israel with guarantees have boosted risk sentiment across markets. On Wall Street, the major indices — Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite — surged, with the Nasdaq jumping 3.8%, marking the best session since May. Futures remain higher, signaling continued momentum. Asian markets are also rallying between 2–5%, and India’s benchmark Nifty 50 is set for a gap-up start after recently hitting a one-year low. Meanwhile, safe-haven assets are seeing pressure. The US Dollar Index slipped below 100 while the US 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.29% amid hopes of de-escalation. Precious metals have taken a hit, with gold posting its worst month since 2013 (down 13%) and silver recording its steepest monthly fall since 2011 (down 19%).
Oil prices ticked up in early Wednesday trade, with Brent front-month futures extending a record March rally as Middle East volatility kept markets jittery, despite reports that the U.S. and Iran may be edging closer to a negotiated end to the war.
Interglobe Aviation, Adani Ports, Adani Enterprises, Trent, Bharat Electronics were among biggest gainers on the Nifty, while losers included Dr Reddy's Labs, HDFC Life, Cipla, NTPC, Sun Pharma. Nifty Midcap index added 2.2 percent and smallcap index rose 3.3%. Except pharma (down 1%), all other sectoral indices ended in the green with defence index surged more than 5%, capital goods, media, PSU Bank indices rose 3% each, while auto, consumer durables, IT, metal, realty, FMCG, telecom, Private Bank up 1-2%.
The combination of falling prices, rising volatility, and aggressive rollover participation suggests that the April series begins with short rollover dominance and defensive institutional positioning, rather than simple profit booking.
Sanjay Doshi remains enthused by opportunities in renewable and non-fossil-based segments along with equipment suppliers for grid expansion and upgrades.
The Nifty 50 is expected to face resistance at 22,700–22,800, followed by 23,000–23,500, which will be a crucial hurdle, as sustaining above it can boost bullish confidence. However, 22,280 (near the recent day’s low) can act as immediate key support.
After being oversold and with bears showing some signs of fatigue, the Nifty 50 may see a rebound towards 22,500–22,700; however, sustainability remains key going forward. As the index is close to a rising support trendline, a decisive break could trigger a fall towards 22,000–21,700, according to experts.
Immediate support for Nifty is placed in the 22,150–22,200 range, while resistance is seen between 22,450 and 22,500, said an analyst
Kotak Institutional Equities expects limited earnings impact if the crisis in West Asia is brief, but warns of higher risks if it escalates.
A Wall Street Journal report indicated that US President Donald Trump is willing to end the ongoing conflict with Iran.
The commodity derivatives segment will remain closed during the morning session but will reopen for trading in the evening session.
Unless the index gets a bullish candlestick with immediate follow-through, the trend, for now, is down and the April 2025 low has a high likelihood of being tested, Akshay Chinchalkar said.
FIIs have pulled out over Rs 3.17 lakh crore from Indian equities in FY26 already. Domestic sentiment may hold up for a bit on SIP flows and retail enthusiasm, but a genuine, broad-based upmove? That requires clarity on Hormuz. Until then, any rally will be a bear market bounce, not the start of a new leg, said Divam Sharma.
Weekly options data suggest that the Nifty 50 is likely to remain in the 22,000–22,500 range in the short term, as a breakout on either side could determine the next directional move.
Markets will also remain shut on April 3 for Good Friday this week.
All the sectors ended in the red with auto, FMCG, consumer durables, capital goods, telecom, realty, private bank, PSU bank down 2-4%.