Fight between two Shiv Senas: The Muslim factor in Mumbai South Lok Sabha seat

Arvind Sawant (L) and Yamini Jadhav

From the iconic Gateway of India to the picturesque Marine Drive, and from the historic CSMT to the bustling BSE, the Mumbai South Lok Sabha constituency boasts a collection of landmarks that define the essence of Mumbai. This constituency encapsulates the vibrant tapestry of the city, with Hindu strongholds like Kalbadevi and Bhuleshwar juxtaposed against densely populated Muslim neighbourhoods such as Bhindi Bazaar, Pydhonie, and Masjid Bunder. With its diverse demographics and recent political upheavals in Maharashtra, the Mumbai-South seat has become the focal point of a fierce electoral battle. The Muslim community, constituting a significant 25% of the electorate, holds considerable sway in shaping the election outcome.

The seat became a subject of contention during seat-sharing negotiations among the political alliances. In the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), the Congress vied for the seat, citing its traditional stronghold in the constituency. However, the Shiv Sena (UBT) argued that the seat had been won by its candidate, Arvind Sawant, in the last two elections, ultimately securing the candidacy for Sawant once again.

Congress's decision to sacrifice the seat had upset Milind Deora, who won twice (2004 and 2009) and lost equal number of times (2014 and 2019), and was hopeful to contest again. A disappointed Deora quit the Congress and joined Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde).

Similarly, within the incumbent Mahayuti alliance, both the BJP and the Shiv Sena staked their claims on the seat. Since the formation of the BJP, it has been able to win the seats only twice. Jaywantiben Mehta, the party's candidate won in 1996 and 1999. While Eknath Shinde's party claimed that since 2009 this seat went to Shiv Sena (undivided) in the saffron alliance, the BJP insisted that it has a good organisational set up in the constituency and it would offer candidate who had strong win-ability. The BJP was considering to propose Maharashtra Lok Sabha speaker Rahul Narvekar from the seat. A prolonged negotiation led to the Shiv Sena fielding Yamini Jadhav as its candidate. Yamini Jadhav is an MLA from the Byculla assembly constituency. Since 2020, Yamini and her husband Yashwant Jadhav have come under the radar of the Income Tax department due to discrepancies in their IT returns. Additionally, the Enforcement Directorate initiated an inquiry against the couple for FEMA violations. In 2022, after Eknath Shinde rebelled from the Shiv Sena, they joined his camp.

The dynamics of the contest now primarily revolve around the two factions of the Shiv Sena, with Arvind Sawant enjoying an advantage due to the support from Congress as part of the MVA. Since 2019, it has been reported that after joining the MVA, Uddhav Thackeray has amended his party's relationship with the Muslim community. Although Uddhav still claims that his party adheres to the Hindutva ideology, he seldom targets Muslims in his speeches or in his party's mouthpiece, Saamana. Thackeray's performance as the CM during the Covid-19 pandemic has been lauded by Muslims. The absence of a prominent Muslim candidate further consolidates Sawant's position.

On the other hand, Yamini Jadhav relies on support from BJP cadres and backing by Raj Thackeray's party MNS. This Lok Sabha constituency has six Vidhan Sabha seats, out of which three are with the MVA and the others with Mahayuti. It is one of the six Lok Sabha constituencies in Mumbai where polling will be held on May 20.