On shaky ground: Why Vokkaligas are steering away from JD(S)

. The 2023 elections have shown that the JDS is not the primary choice of Vokkaliga voters.

Vokkaligas and Lingayats are two groups that have historically dominated Karnataka politics. Traditionally, support from either one of the caste groups is necessary for a party to win a state election.

Over the years, despite the JDS’ shrinking electoral base, the party remained a significant political force. This has largely to do with the party’s strong support base amongst the Vokkaligas, who are concentrated in and around the Old Mysore belt. While history would show that the JDS’ primary support base is amongst the Vokkaligas, more recent analysis would suggest that visible changes are evident. The 2023 assembly election result was a clear pointer. The BJP made significant inroads into the Vokkaliga heartland. While this did not translate into seats, the party did record a significant increase in vote share in the Old Mysore region. Importantly, the Congress also made significant vote share gains amongst Vokkaligas. With the 2024 elections less than a week away, what can we expect this time? Will the Congress make further inroads into JDS’ Vokkaliga base? Or can the alliance with the BJP help the JDS regain some lost ground?

The rise of DK Shivakumar, in the Congress, has been an important factor in the shift of Vokkaliga votes towards the party. He represents the emergence of a non-JDS Vokkaliga leadership. In 2023, Shivakumar was the architect of Congress’ strong performance in the Old Mysore region. From ticket distribution to micromanaging the party’s strategy in every seat, Shivakumar ensured that a significant chunk of Vokkaliga voters saw Congress as a viable option. The rise of D.K. Shivakumar is not the first time a Vokkaliga leader has emerged outside the JDS. The BJP too, tried this strategy with Sadananda Gowda. Despite making him Chief Minister for a year between 2011 and 2012, the strategy did not pay dividends. Later, the BJP had many second rung Vokkaliga leaders, who were even made Deputy Chief Ministers. Its Leader of the Opposition in the Assembly is today a Vokkaliga.

The Congress is building on its 2023 playbook by fielding key local candidates. In Mysore for example, the party has put up a Vokkaliga face while the BJP has nominated a member of the erstwhile royal family. With this move, the Congress is hoping to make major gains among Vokkaliga voters. In Mandya, the party has fielded a local Vokkaliga candidate, Venkatramane Gowda (locally known as Star Chandru). Chandru has played the outsider vs insider card against his opponent– claiming that Kumaraswamy is an outsider from Hassan and Ramanagara. This strategy can also be seen in Tumkur, where a local Vokkaliga candidate has been fielded against the BJP candidate V Somanna, who is a Lingayat.

For the JDS, the alliance with the BJP is a critical attempt at restoring its support base amongst Vokkaliga voters. In 2023, a significant number of Vokkaligas voted for the BJP. While this did not convert to many victories, it did damage the JDS’ chances. This time the JDS would be hoping that the alliance could bring back some of the voters who shifted to the BJP. At the same time, the party is hoping the alliance would give it a double boost. At one level, with heavyweights from the Gowda family contesting, the JDS is trying to restore its image as the party of first choice for the Vokkaligas. At the same time, looking at the larger picture, sustained emphasis is also being put on BJP’s central leadership, in particular Narendra Modi. The duo of the Deve Gowda family locally and Narendra Modi nationally, is a formula the JDS is banking on.

While this remains a national election, local issues are going to play an important role amongst Vokkaliga voters. In particular, the Cauvery water issue with Tamil Nadu is one of the most important. This was part of Kumaraswamy’s election rally in Mandya. He argued that the combination of the JDS leadership on the ground and Prime Minister Modi’s leadership at the national level will ensure that

Karnataka’s interests in the Cauvery issue will be addressed. The BJP is also on the same page, stressing that the combined leadership of Deve Gowda and Narendra Modi will win 90% of Vokkaligas votes for the NDA.

The Congress has also focused on the local, but has taken on a different strategy. The party is hoping two factors will work in their favour. First, the five guarantees the party had made in the Assembly Elections. With the one-year in office mark approaching, the Congress would be hoping the voters would give them a stamp of approval for the ‘successful’ implementation of the 5-point guarantee. Secondly, rather than focusing on prominent national leaders, the Congress has picked important local leaders. Particularly in Mysore, Mandya and Tumkur, the Congress candidates are key Vokkaliga leaders who have done extensive work at the grassroots. Working in tandem, the Congress would be hoping this would help them expand their Vokkaliga base.

The Vokkaliga votes, at one point the stronghold of the JDS, is now witnessing significant changes. The 2023 elections have shown that the JDS is not the primary choice of Vokkaliga voters. A large number of them are increasingly moving to the Congress. The rise of the BJP in Old Mysore is an important factor, suggesting a new entry of a new challenger to JDS’ Vokkaliga vote base. With elections just a few days away, it would be interesting to see which way Vokkaligas go. Their choice could have important implications for Karnataka’s electoral landscape over the next decade.