Why upcoming LS polls could be make-or-break for JD(S)

File photo of HD Kumaraswamy (R)

The 2004 assembly elections were a critical moment for the JD(S). With 58 seats, the party emerged as the third largest party, just 7 seats behind the Congress. With neither the Congress or BJP getting a majority, the JD(S) emerged as the ‘kingmaker’. Though the third largest party, no government could be formed without their support. With the JD(S) holding its own in its stronghold of Mysore Karnataka, the party began to emerge as an important third force alongside the BJP and Congress. A similar trend was witnessed in 2018, when the JD(S) formed a short-lived coalition government with the Congress - having lesser seats but still bagging the chief ministership.  However, JD(S)’ poor performance in the last assembly elections in 2023, have raised serious questions about the party’s future. Not only has the party’s seat tally plummeted  to 19, more critically it is losing ground in Old Mysore region. In the Lok Sabha elections, the JD(S) is in a much more precarious position. The upcoming elections could be a make-or-break moment for the JD(S).

There are three key issues the JD(S) is grappling with. Firstly, the party has reduced itself to a family centred entity. Prominent leaders like Siddharamaiah, who are not from the Gowda family, have moved away from the party to build their political careers. As a result, the party’s senior leadership is almost entirely made up of members of the Gowda family. The underlying rift between Deve Gowda’s two sons, HD Kumaraswamy and HD Revanna could potentially lead to the breakup of the party. The presence of the patriarch, Deve Gowda, keeps the differences from boiling over.  Secondly, the JD(S) has failed to expand outside its Mysore-Hassan base. More importantly, even here, the JD(S) appears to be losing ground to the BJP and Congress. With D.K. Shivakumar, emerging as a prominent leader, the Vokkaligga vote is moving away from the JD(S). Thirdly, there is a question over the alliance with the BJP. While a simple mathematical case can be made for the alliance, is there synergy on the ground? In 2019, when the JD(S) entered into an alliance with the Congress, the chemistry was clearly missing. Is 2024 going to be a repeat of 2019, where the party leadership and the cadre are not on the same page?

The first and the most important challenge for the JD(S) is the question of leadership and infighting. No prominent leaders from outside the Gowda family has emerged within the party. Other non-Gowda family leaders like B.M. Farooq and C.S. Puttaraju lack the grassroots appeal to mobilize support on the ground. All the three JD(S)’  candidates for the 2024 elections are from the Gowda family. More critically, there are divisions within the family. When the idea of a BJP-JD(S) alliance initially emerged in 2023, Deve Gowda and Kumaraswamy appeared to have diverging viewpoints. While Kumaraswamy was keen on partnering with the BJP, Deve Gowda did not share the same enthusiasm. However, once the alliance was finalized, both father and son appeared to be on the same page.

The JD(S)’ second major concern is its limited support base in the Mysore and Hassan belt. This is partly due to the lack of young leadership emerging within the party. With the leadership revolving around the Gowda family, expanding the voter base beyond the Vokkaligga community is a challenge. Since 2004, all the JD(S)’s elected MPs have been from the Mysore-Hassan belt. Deve Gowda and his grandson Prajwal Revanna have held onto the Hassan Lok Sabha seat since 1991 (except for 1999, when the Congress candidate won). The party’s other strong seat Mandya, is also in the middle of the Old Mysore region. Alarmingly, the JD(S) appeared to be losing ground to both the Congress and the BJP in the Old Mysore belt in the 2023 Assembly elections. Across Karnataka, while the BJP’s seat share reduced significantly, its vote share remained more or less the same. This is largely due to a significant jump in vote share in JD(S)’ Old-Mysore strong hold. The decision to have an alliance with the BJP is more to do with self-preservation rather than an attempt at expanding the party’s vote base. Even in alliance with the BJP, the JD(S) is not fielding any candidates outside the Old-Mysore and Hassan region.

The JD(S) would also be concerned about its alliance’s effectiveness on the ground. At one level, there seems to be a disconnect between the party leadership and the grassroots. When the alliance with the BJP was announced, there was significant unease amongst several members of the party. Leaders like C.M. Ibrahim left the party following the announcement. Both Kumaraswamy and Deve Godwa had to come out and issue statements denying reports of any internal divisions within the party. At another level, there appears to be fundamental differences between the BJP and JD(S) leadership. Recently, at an election rally held at Tumakuru, clashes breakout between JD(S) and BJP workers. While the situation was diffused, the incident highlights fundamental differences between the cadres of both parties at the grassroots. These internal factions within the JD(S) and differences between JD(S) and BJP cadres could undermine the alliance as the election day approaches.

The JD(S) has a lot at stake in the upcoming elections. In many ways, the JD(S) is in a battle for survival. A strong showing in Mandya, Hassan and Bengaluru Rural could help the party hold its house together. Top on its priority would be to prevent any loss of turf in Old Mysore and Hassan. The alliance with the BJP is a step in this direction. The question is whether this alliance would translate to tangible results on the ground is more difficult to answer.