Mandate Bihar: How over 5,700 first-time voters per seat could prove to be crucial

Bihar electorate

As the Election Commission announced the poll schedule for upcoming assembly elections in Bihar, a particular aspect-- 14.01 lakh first-time voters, caught the attention of political observers. The sizeable chunk of first-time voters roughly translates to 5,700 per seat, according to a report by The Indian Express.

With elections in Bihar becoming more competitive, and victory margins falling, first-time voters may prove to be a crucial vote bank. While the number of first-time voters has grown from 11.17 lakh in 2020, it’s below the 24.13 lakh registered in 2015, highlighted the same report.

Even in 2020, a lot of the election campaign was focused on the youth. The RJD and LJP are wooed the young by raising the issue of unemployment in the state.

The findings from the IE report point out that on average, each of Bihar’s 243 Assembly constituencies has 5,765 first-time voters this year. In 2020, the figure stood at 4,597, well below the average in 2015 at 9,930 voters.

In the 2020 Assembly elections, there were 56 seats – 23% of all Bihar constituencies – where the current average number of first-time voters (5,765) exceeds the winning margins. In 2020, the average winning margin across the state was 16,825 votes. The same comparison for the 2015 elections shows that there were 41 such seats where the winning margins were below this year’s first-time voter tally.

However, the young electorate in Bihar — a constituency being wooed aggressively by all major parties election after election — had shrunk significantly in 2020, with the biggest dent in the number of first-time voters between the ages of 18 and 19 years.

The EC data, analysed by the publication in 2020, showed that the total under-30 electorate has decreased by 12.4% — from 2.04 crore to 1.79 crore — since the last Assembly election. The drop is even sharper in the 18-19 years voter category, which is less than half of the 2015 tally. There are 11.17 lakh first-time voters registered this time as opposed to 24.13 lakh in 2015.

The outcome of the 2015 Assembly polls show there were 73 seats where the average number of first-time voters at the time exceeded the winning margin. For instance, in Tarari, the CPI(ML)(L) candidate narrowly edged out the LJP runner-up by 272 votes, well below the 9,930 average first-time voters. Among the 73 such seats, the BJP won 30, followed by the JD(U) 16, the RJD 13, Congress nine, and other parties won the remaining five.