Maharashtra set for subdued August rainfall, with wetter September predicted: IMD

Mumbai rains

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued its latest outlook, indicating a cautious start and a robust finish for Maharashtra’s monsoon season. According to the forecast highlighted by FPJ, the state is likely to receive below-normal to normal rainfall in August. However, a rebound is on the cards, with September expected to bring a significant increase in rainfall activity.

Across the country, the IMD has predicted above-normal rainfall for the second half of the southwest monsoon season (August–September), foreseeing rainfall at more than 106% of the long-period average. This is a stark turnaround, as several states, excluding many northeastern and eastern regions, are forecast to see improved precipitation after an uneven June and July.

Mumbai experienced an early onset of the monsoon this year, arriving on May 26, 16 days ahead of the usual June 11 date, according to FPJ. Despite a series of heavy downpours until last week, the city is currently in a lull. The IMD’s district forecast for the coming five days, starting August 3, shows no significant weather alerts for Mumbai and its metropolitan region, which includes Thane, Palghar and Raigad. Residents in these areas should expect only light showers.

Rainfall statistics released on the morning of August 3 reveal that Mumbai has already received 47.32% of its annual average rainfall. The heaviest rainfall has been recorded in the eastern suburbs with 1,165 mm, the western suburbs following with 1,067 mm and the city area at 900 mm.

Despite this, the total rainfall for July was the city’s lowest in the last decade, as confirmed by past rainfall records and echoed by meteorological experts. This break in intense rain is expected to persist, with only isolated moderate showers anticipated.

Crucially, the city’s water security remains solid. On social media, updates from weather authorities and civic bodies continue to reassure residents. The seven lakes supplying Mumbai collectively hold 1,289,455 million litres, representing 89.1% of their full capacity as of August 3. Detailed figures show Modak Sagar at 100%, Tansa at 98.4%, Middle Vaitarna at 97.2%, Upper Vaitarna at 82.8%, Bhatsa at 85.7%, Tulsi at 84.5% and Vihar at 72.5%. The lakes' healthy stock, even after subdued rainfall in July, assures continued water availability for Mumbai residents.

Meteorologists note no major rain-bearing systems developing in the region for the immediate week ahead. Factors like neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing, which often spell a mix of localised weather fluctuations.

For Maharashtra and its capital, the IMD’s regional head commented, as quoted by FPJ, that “below-normal rainfall in August may be compensated in September; isolated heavy showers can be expected but most of the state should prepare for drier conditions this month with a rebound in the next”.