BUSINESS
Macro Matters | Non-petroleum goods exports in June 2019 are lower than in September 2014
Non-oil goods imports in June 2019 lower than in June 2017
BUSINESS
Macro Matters | Why financial conditions are likely to get better
An RBI research paper as well as money supply data indicates that a turnaround in the financial cycle is likely
BUSINESS
Macro Matters: Is the current slowdown cyclical or structural?
If the slowdown is a warning that India is in danger of being caught in a middle-income trap, where does that leave investors?
BUSINESS
The government’s decision to stick to the fiscal deficit target is an unalloyed good
Businesses and equity markets will have to bear the short-term costs of fiscal restraint
BUSINESS
Budget 2019 | Should we take the Budget numbers at face value?
FAQs on the Budget estimates
BUSINESS
Economic Survey wants India to follow China’s shining example
The East Asian model is far from ‘blue sky thinking’, but what other successful growth stories do we have?
BUSINESS
Why the quality of Indian economic growth is less than stellar
India’s overall government expenditure is substantially higher than most peers in the region
BUSINESS
Why the US is targeting Huawei
Huawei is the only Chinese multinational in the top five list of R&D spenders
BUSINESS
The Bank for International Settlements warns of a build-up of financial risks
A prolonged period of ultra-low interest rates gives rise to many distortions and could set the stage for the next financial crisis
BUSINESS
Macro Matters | It’s a puzzle why household savings in physical assets have fallen, but foreign savings offer succour
It’s necessary for household savings to rise to ensure there are enough funds for capital formation in the economy. If savings do not go up, the current account deficit will bloat when the capex cycle turns.
BUSINESS
Budget 2019 | Central govt accounts up to May underline tight fiscal position of government
Capex fell during the first two months of the fiscal year
BUSINESS
Macro Policy | India’s merchandise exports have stagnated and it is vital to improve competitiveness
Export policy in the age of Donald Trump will have to be very different. Moreover, a large part of exports are now the result of being part of global value chains and parts and semi-finished goods make their way several times across borders. A policy of currency depreciation will not work when imports form a large component of exports.
BUSINESS
Macro Matters I The backdrop to the G-20 meeting in four charts
Policy uncertainty leads to low business confidence, in turn hurting growth and investment
BUSINESS
Budget 2019: What is the reason for the slowdown in the economy?
Why did consumption growth fall so sharply in the December 2018 quarter?
BUSINESS
The Empire Strikes Back, Starring Rene Descartes
China has done very well despite the widespread perception its GDP numbers are very dodgy
BUSINESS
Policy Pulse | Four key messages from the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee
There is no consensus on how weak growth is, but as long as inflation remains low, monetary policy will be called upon to do the heavy lifting
BUSINESS
Markets | Three paradoxes in the US Fed decision
The markets can’t cheer for both -- a US Fed rate cut as well as a US-China trade deal
BUSINESS
Markets | Global fund manager survey: if investors are the most bearish since the financial crisis, why are markets so high?
Central banks will once again ride to the rescue, but monetary policy impotence is an increasing risk
BUSINESS
Chart of the Day: The foreign trade figures for May mirror slowdown in economy
Total goods import growth in May 2019 from a month ago was 4.3 percent, but crude oil imports went up 8.2 percent
BUSINESS
Macro Matters | The implications of the government’s target of making India a $5 trillion economy by 2024
A substantial jump in the growth rate is required to achieve the objective
BUSINESS
India versus Bharat: the divide in working conditions
The divergence can only be bridged by getting underemployed workers out of stagnant agriculture and into the higher productivity formal sector
INDIA
Policy matters | The urgent need for restoring credibility to India’s macro data
Arvind Subramanian has delivered the coup de grace to the new GDP series
BUSINESS
Which state has the lowest labour costs?
If the government’s numbers are correct, wages are the lowest in West Bengal, followed by Gujarat
BUSINESS
Growth in bank loans to small and micro firms is much lower than in 2013-14
The fears about Mudra loans leading to the next wave of non-performing assets may be exaggerated
