BUSINESS
RBI Surveys show repo cut made to prop up growth, consumer demand despite rising household inflation expectations
At the press conference after the monetary policy announcement, a clearly worried RBI governor said that the pervasive uncertainty in global trade and economic policies is weighing weigh on consumption, investment and economic growth. That goes for markets too
BUDGET
The stark inequalities in consumption: What the numbers reveal
The top 5 percent of the urban population spend Rs 3,064 per head per month on consumer durables while someone in the top 40-50 percent bracket spends just Rs 758 -- a fourfold difference, according to the Survey on Household Consumption Expenditure in India, 2023-24
BUSINESS
Quick Take: January PMI shows slower growth, bolsters case for a rate cut on Friday
If the PMI and the corporate sector indicate a slowdown, then conditions in the rest of the economy must be even worse. Moreover, given the uncertainties in the external sector, there is all the more reason for monetary policy to give a boost to the domestic economy
BUSINESS
The US trade deficit with India is higher than that with Canada
Apart from China, US trade deficits with the EU, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, India and Taiwan are larger than with Canada. Will these countries be next in line for Trump tariffs?
BUSINESS
Crunching the Numbers: Does Budget 2025 really boost consumption?
The share of GDP the government takes in taxes out of total income is expected to go up. That in turn means the share available for households for consumption or saving or investment is slightly lower than what it is in the current fiscal year
BUSINESS
Meets the Mark, But Misses the Magic: The Budget 2025 Big Picture
The Budget’s strategy is simple: maintain fiscal discipline, use tax cuts to boost consumption, and rely on incremental reforms to enhance competitiveness. It’s a cautious approach, but lacks ambition
BUSINESS
Economic Survey's plain truth: We need to go beyond 6.5% growth
With the Union Budget around the corner, the real question is this: how will the government prioritize these reforms? What are the immediate steps that can be taken to accelerate India’s journey towards 8% growth?
BUSINESS
Budget 2025: How does India’s fiscal position compare to its Asian peers?
Thanks to populist policies, India’s general government expenditure, as a proportion of GDP, is much higher than that of its Asian peers
BUSINESS
We need an extraordinary budget for extraordinary times
The Budget must deliver a boost to consumption, must increase capex and at the same time provide incentives to the corporate sector to invest. The stimulus to consumption should be provided by tax cuts rather than through handouts
BUSINESS
Bank of America survey finds India remains off investors’ radar
The Asia fund manager survey found most participants seeing a further decline in the Indian equity markets
BUSINESS
Trump 2.0: Great Disorder Under Heaven
Behind all the bombast, behind all the tough talk and aggressive posturing, is the imperative to preserve America’s hegemony and its economic dominance
BUSINESS
RBI research reveals economic ripple effects of geopolitical shocks on India
A one standard deviation shock to the global GPRI can lead to a trade volume decline of 1.0 percentage point and a capital flow cutback of 0.3 percentage points
BUSINESS
Change in IMF forecasts reflects exceptional performance of US economy, dollar
The forecast for India in 2025 has remained the same over the course of the past year
BUSINESS
Quick Take | Does the CPI inflation print for December point to a rate cut in February?
With fiscal stimulus likely to come down further in the 2025-26 Budget, monetary policy will have to do the heavy lifting to support growth
BUSINESS
Is industrial production rising or falling? Depends on what you’re looking at
The picture painted by the month-on-month data is completely different from the year-on-year figures. We badly need seasonally adjusted data
BUSINESS
Chart of the Day | What are the drivers of economic growth in 2024-25?
Private consumption is expected to account for 4.1 percentage points of the 6.4 percent GDP growth this fiscal year
BUSINESS
GDP estimate shows Budget 2025-26 should boost capex, not push consumption
BUSINESS
Are wars good for the stock market?
The MSCI equity indices of both Israel and Ukraine were up handsomely in 2024
BUSINESS
The Household Consumption Survey data for 2023-24 doesn’t fit premiumisation narrative
Monthly Per Capita Expenditure (MPCE) of the top 5 percent of households in urban India fell from Rs20824 in 2022-23 to Rs 20310 in 2023-24, while in rural India it went down from Rs10501 to Rs10137 over the same period
BUSINESS
The Nehru Narrative: What the economic numbers say
Nehru’s record on economic growth was worse than that of most comparable countries
BUSINESS
Markets too bullish for comfort, says global fund manager survey
The Bank of America survey of global fund managers says that the only times cash allocation among global fund managers was near December 2024 levels were back in January -March 2002 and in February 2011, which were huge tops in risk assets. Wednesday’s sharp fall in the markets supports the BofA view
BUSINESS
Flash PMI indicates growth is accelerating at the end of 2024
The PMI survey shows that demand at the end of the year is strong, animal spirits are high and jobs are plentiful while inflation pressures are subsiding. It’s a wonderful start to 2025
BUSINESS
Fed rate cut almost a certainty this week, but next year is a different story
While a 25-basis point cut is priced in for the FOMC meeting this week, the markets are expecting a shallower easing trajectory next year and higher level of rates at the end of the loosening cycle
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Weekender | Back to the 1930s
The state of the world at present echoes that of the 1930s, this time with nukes
