BUSINESS
The tales economists spin
A new IMF working paper titled ‘Crouching Beliefs, Hidden Biases: The Rise and Fall of Growth Narratives’ looks at the changing orthodoxy on economic growth. But, as Eugene Fama says, is the business of central banks really like pornography?
BUSINESS
The rise in wholesale price inflation is a sign of economic recovery
As demand comes back, deflation in manufactured products is coming down
BUSINESS
The slight growth in industrial production in September is largely a mirage
The 0.2 percent growth in September 2020 is on top of a contraction of 4.6 percent in September 2019
BUSINESS
Lockdown leads to household savings glut
Where was the extra saving deployed? The biggest chunk went into cash holdings, which shot up to 5.4 percent of GDP, from 1.4 percent for 2019-20 as a whole
BUSINESS
GDP nowcast shows India has slipped into a recession
Elevated inflationary pressures persisted in October, with a poll of professional forecasters putting consumer price inflation at 7.3 percent for the month
POLITICS
The Drinking Man’s Guide to the Bihar Elections
A chat over drinks with a self-styled political pundit on potential reasons for Nitish Kumar's declining popularity
POLITICS
The bizarre charm of Donald Trump
Why Trump did so well in the election in spite of all his faults
BUSINESS
China can no longer rely on its old development model, nor can India
India’s exports/GDP ratio was slightly higher than China’s in 2019
BUSINESS
Despite economic distress, central government spending lower than last year in first half
Central government expenditure in the first half of 2020-21 was 99 percent of spending in same period of the last fiscal year.
BUSINESS
Even if Biden wins, there will be no return to the pre-Trump era
The earlier policies of multilateralism, globalisation and free trade have not been able to reverse US decline
BUSINESS
For a change, a lively MPC meeting
The last MPC meet appears to have had quite a few verbal duels
POLITICS
What has Nitish Kumar’s economic track record been in the last five years?
It’s very likely that the economic disruption resulting from the pandemic, the lockdowns and the return of migrant labour would overshadow any earlier good work done on the economic front
BUSINESS
The excitement over India’s per capita income being lower than Bangladesh’s is just political hype
If we take the IMF’s figures for gross domestic product per capita at constant prices, measured by purchasing power parity using 2017 international dollars, then Bangladesh’s per capita income in 2020 is 83 percent of India’s.
BUSINESS
What the IMF forecasts say about Sino-US rivalry in the next few years
The trend of a rising China and a declining US is expected to continue, despite the strenuous efforts of US politicians
BUSINESS
The reason for the government’s miserly fiscal support
The IMF’s fiscal monitor estimates India’s overall fiscal deficit to be 13.1 percent of GDP in FY21 and to remain above 10 percent till FY23
BUSINESS
RBI surveys show current situation dismal, but hopes about the future soar
The economy may currently be mired in a deep recession, but the RBI surveys show a revival of confidence and animal spirits
POLITICS
The farm reforms are an attempt to integrate agriculture with Indian capitalism
In the context of farm reforms, we could learn from the Chinese experience, where contract farming has flourished
BUSINESS
Do research papers by central bank economists suffer from conflicts of interest?
Upton Sinclair: ‘It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it’
BUSINESS
UNCTAD is a voice in the wilderness calling for systemic change
UNCTAD says covid-19 has raised fundamental questions about the way we organise society and the values that structure our lives
BUSINESS
ADB study finds India’s score on Wellness Index lower than Ethiopia, Uganda
The covid-19 pandemic will be a boon for the wellness industry
BUSINESS
A new bull market?
The Bank of America Survey of fund managers for September finds that allocation to equities rose 6 percentage points month on month to a net 18 percent overweight. But allocation to emerging markets has come down
BUSINESS
Why is consumer price inflation so high while economic growth is so low?
Consumer price inflation in India is among the highest in the world while the contraction in growth has been among the highest
BUSINESS
Employment in the Indian economy has been shrinking since 2011-12, says KLEMS database
The KLEMS database finds that the number of persons employed fell from 47.16 crore in 2011-12 to 46.47 crore in 2018-19
BUSINESS
Could we have a re-run of the Roaring Twenties this decade?
Will COVID-19 leave long-term economic scars? Economic research says it will, but much of the West had a huge boom after the Spanish Flu of 1918, which killed millions
