BUSINESS
Emkay’s Seshadri Sen says 6%+ economic growth needs recovery in mass incomes
Adverse geopolitical outcomes, according to the market observer, pose a major risk though the worst have been digested by markets
BUSINESS
How do the poll-bound states fare on the Misery Index?
According to the Misery Index, Rajasthan is the most miserable, while Chhattisgarh is the least. But a more nuanced look is needed, taking into account how many of those counted as employed are actually in disguised unemployment
BUSINESS
The contradictions at the heart of OpenAI
The belief that a technology as powerful as AI can be overseen by a non-profit entity is a Utopian one
BUSINESS
Is this the end of Higher-for-longer?
The fall in inflation in the US confirms the view of investors that both inflation and interest rates are headed lower next year, leading to a rally in the bond and equity markets
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Weekender: Ode to consumption
Can consumption continue to support growth? We'll soon know how strong festive demand has been
BUSINESS
Dependency on free foodgrains signals the demographic dividend can become a nightmare
A Niti Aayog document says, ‘’Despite the large public expenditure, gains in the food security and nutritional outcomes in India have been slow. India accounts for roughly 30 percent of the global burden of hunger.’’
BUSINESS
Job growth in India much lower than increase in working age population
The figure for employment in agriculture and allied sectors in 2020-21 in India was the highest since 2008-09 and is a sign of disguised unemployment
BUSINESS
Manufacturing PMI weakens in festive season
The PMI data highlighted a particularly marked slowdown in the consumer goods sector
BUSINESS
Average working hours per week a mere 42.5, far lower than Narayana Murthy’s 70-hour benchmark
The government’s Periodic Labour Force Survey says the average workweek was 42.5 hours in April-June 2023, compared to 52.6 hours in April-June 2018
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Weekender: Now is not the time for forward guidance
It’s pointless to ascribe day-to-day movements in the markets to the fundamentals — all that may have happened is that bond shorts were covering
BUSINESS
India’s festive demand a sign of increasing consumer confidence
Unlike the export-oriented economies of East and Southeast Asia or investment-driven China, it is domestic consumption that has powered India’s growth.
BUSINESS
US bond yields dip despite better-than-expected flash PMI
Although bond yields have come down since Bill Ackman and Bill Gross said the US economy was slowing, the advance PMI for the US shows surprising strength
BUSINESS
Is higher household borrowing a sign of consumer confidence or consumer distress?
The MPC minutes imply that while lenders should be cautious, an increase in household borrowing is not a sign of distress, but instead a signal of increasing confidence that will support consumption and also increase capex, which in turn could power the economy
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Weekender: Push Me Pull You Markets
Why does the global policy regime resemble the Pushmi-Pullyu of the Doctor Doolittle series? Read on to know
BUSINESS
Fund managers’ allocation to China falls, but India and Japan gain
If the conflict in Israel-Palestine does not spread, we could have a Santa rally at year-end
BUSINESS
Can Joe Biden ensure the Israel-Palestine conflict doesn’t escalate?
The US president will be going to Israel on Wednesday, in an attempt to ensure the war does not spill over to the rest of the region. But US actions so far do not hold out much hope
BUSINESS
IMF: Soft landing hopes propel rally in risky assets
The IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report says, ‘the belief that aggregate demand will gradually slow, labour market tightness will ease, and price pressures fade—has boosted investor risk appetite, fuelling the rise in risk asset prices seen since April 2023’
BUSINESS
Unemployment much lower than pre-pandemic levels, but fine print throws up many questions
The PLFS survey shows that while the unemployment rate has improved, there has also been a rise in the proportion of unpaid helpers in household enterprises. The increase in the proportion of such workers, the higher proportion of workers in agriculture and the higher proportion in the informal sector may have reduced the unemployment rate, but it may also be a symptom of disguised unemployment
BUSINESS
IMF forecasts 6.3 percent GDP growth for India, but no big investment jump
Surprisingly, the IMF projects a very modest rise in investment and savings as a percentage of GDP over the next few years
BUSINESS
If real rural wages have stagnated for a decade, how has private consumption growth been so strong?
Does the consumption of rural labourers really matter? Or can the economy do perfectly well even without them?
BUSINESS
Indian economy: 4th largest in 2026, 3rd in 2027. Just ask IMF
While the Indian economy will overtake both Japan and Germany by 2027, its per capita GDP in that year will only be 9.1 percent of Japan’s and 5.7 percent of Germany’s
BUSINESS
The connection between this year’s Economics Nobel and India’s female labour force participation rate
Claudia Goldin, who was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics, says female participation in the workforce follows a U-shaped pattern as economic development occurs
BUSINESS
Recent IMF report warned of high risk of Palestinian conflict with Israel
The report said Israel’s blockade is responsible for the economic stagnation and high unemployment in the Gaza strip
BUSINESS
RBI survey paints dismal picture of discretionary consumption growth
Only a third of urban consumers surveyed plan to increase their spending on discretionary items during the next one year, a finding hardly conducive to consumer confidence
