From lunch with Munir to oil deal with Pak to tariffs on India: Why Trump’s Islamabad detour is red flag for Delhi

In a stunning about-face from his earlier hardline stance, US President Donald Trump appears to have forged a new strategic camaraderie with Pakistan, raising eyebrows across the geopolitical spectrum and sparking concern in India. Just six years ago, Trump lambasted Islamabad for harbouring terrorists and providing the US with "nothing but lies and deceit." Fast forward to 2025, and the American president is not only hailing Pakistan as a partner but also striking energy deals and accepting Nobel Peace Prize nominations from the country’s military elite.

The dramatic pivot in US-Pakistan ties signals a new and troubling phase in regional diplomacy, one that could upend traditional alignments and destabilise South Asia’s fragile balance.

Trump embraces Pakistan: The timeline of a sudden reset

On July 30, 2025, Trump dropped a bombshell announcement: Washington had reached an agreement with Islamabad to jointly develop Pakistan's untapped oil reserves. "We have just concluded a deal with the country of Pakistan, whereby Pakistan and the United States will work together on developing their massive oil reserves," Trump declared on social media. "We are in the process of choosing the oil company that will lead this partnership."

While details remain scarce, this unprecedented move marks Islamabad’s first high-profile foray into leveraging its coastal oil deposits with foreign help. It also signals the beginning of a deeper economic and energy partnership between the two countries.

But the oil deal is only one piece of the puzzle. Pakistan's Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar recently met US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, revealing that a broader trade deal was in the works and could be finalised within days. "Very close," Dar had said of the progress made in negotiations.

Meanwhile, Pakistan's Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb also visited Washington to further cement economic ties, engaging with key US officials and lawmakers to push for better bilateral trade terms.

From 'lies and deceit' to lunch at the White House

The most symbolic sign of the growing closeness came in mid-June, when Pakistan’s powerful Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir was invited to a private luncheon at the White House. It was the first time an American president had hosted a Pakistani military leader who wasn't also the country’s head of state. White House spokesperson Anna Kelly confirmed the meeting, stating it followed Munir’s nomination of Trump for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, ostensibly for "preventing a nuclear war between India and Pakistan."

If true, this would be one of the most audacious public relations coups by Pakistan’s military in recent memory.

Adding more fuel to the fire, the US awarded Pakistan’s most prestigious military honor, the Nishan-e-Imtiaz (military), to US CENTCOM chief General Michael Kurilla, recognising his role in "promoting regional peace" and improving US-Pakistan defence ties. Kurilla, in turn, had earlier praised Pakistan as a "phenomenal partner" in counter-terrorism.

Following Munir’s visit, Pakistan Air Force Chief Zaheer Ahmed Baber Sidhu also toured Washington in early July, where he held high-level meetings at the Pentagon, Capitol Hill, and the State Department. He is believed to be negotiating for advanced American military hardware, including F-16 Block 70 fighter jets, AIM-7 Sparrow missiles, and HIMARS rocket systems.

Trump's change of heart: What changed?

Trump’s sudden warmth toward Pakistan marks a stark reversal not just from his own 2018 rhetoric but also from the previous Biden administration’s cool detachment from Islamabad. Biden, notably, refused to engage directly with then Prime Minister Imran Khan.

What drove Trump’s change of heart? Experts point to several factors:

Crypto partnership: Pakistan’s alignment with World Liberty Financial, a firm linked to the Trump family, has reportedly played a significant behind-the-scenes role in restoring goodwill.

The Nobel pitch: Munir’s nomination of Trump for a peace prize helped flatter the president’s ego, always a reliable route to political favour.

Operation Sindoor: While India has denied any US mediation in its ceasefire with Pakistan, Islamabad has openly credited Trump with brokering the truce -- yet another narrative win for Trump.

"It demonstrated that despite its political and economic challenges, the country can outmanoeuvre a much bigger adversary," said Arif Ansar, chief strategist at Washington-based advisory firm PoliTact. "This has led President Trump to engage with Pakistan’s traditional power centres based on core strategic interests."

India on the receiving end: Tariffs, penalties and a cold shoulder

While Trump courts Islamabad, India has found itself at the receiving end of America’s economic stick. On the same day the oil deal was announced, Trump slapped a steep 25 per cent tariff on Indian products, while also threatening an "unspecified penalty" for New Delhi’s continued purchase of Russian oil and weapons.

A day after slapping India with sweeping trade penalties, Trump unleashed a blistering tirade against New Delhi's ties with Moscow, deriding both nations as "dead economies" and brazenly declaring he "does not care" what India does with Russia. In a fiery post on Truth Social, Trump doubled down on his long-standing gripe over India's trade practices, accusing the country of levying "among the highest tariffs in the world" and blaming New Delhi for what he claimed was "very little business" between the two nations.

"I don't care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care," he wrote, just hours after Washington's move to slap 25 per cent duties, effective August 1.

Despite calling India a "friend," Trump’s aggressive economic actions undermine that very sentiment. His rationale: India's longstanding protectionist trade policies and its deepening ties with Russia.

"They have always bought a vast majority of their military equipment from Russia, and are Russia’s largest buyer of energy, along with China, at a time when everyone wants Russia to stop the killing in Ukraine—all things not good!" Trump complained.

India should be worried

Trump’s tilt toward Pakistan comes at a precarious time for India. Not only does it signal a potential re-hyphenation of India-Pakistan in American foreign policy -- a throwback to Cold War-era diplomacy -- but it also threatens to embolden Pakistan diplomatically and militarily at a time when regional stability is already fragile.

Moreover, any meaningful reset between the US and Pakistan could potentially dilute Washington’s strategic commitment to India as a key Indo-Pacific partner and counterweight to China. It also creates space for Pakistan to further align with both Washington and Beijing, boxing New Delhi into a tighter strategic corner.

How past US Presidents viewed Pakistan

Trump's current cosiness with Islamabad contrasts starkly with how previous US presidents, including himself, handled Pakistan.

After US Navy SEALs found and killed Osama bin Laden deep inside Pakistan in 2011, President Barack Obama’s administration grew increasingly sceptical of Islamabad's counter-terrorism credentials.

Hillary Clinton, then Secretary of State, famously told Pakistan: "You can't keep snakes in your backyard and expect them to only bite your neighbours."

Even Trump himself, in 2018, accused Pakistan of harbouring terrorists and slammed the country for taking billions in US aid without reciprocating.

This historical context makes the current developments all the more baffling and concerning for India.

How India is responding: Resetting ties with China?

Amid these developments, there are emerging signs that India is quietly recalibrating its own foreign policy. One notable signal is the thaw in India-China ties. After years of military standoffs and diplomatic friction, both nations have initiated discreet backchannel communications aimed at defusing tensions and exploring areas of mutual interest.

While the move does not signify a full realignment, it suggests New Delhi is hedging its bets as Washington’s commitment to India comes under question. A possible India-China rapprochement, even a tactical one, could be New Delhi's way of asserting its autonomy and strategic leverage.

Trump's overtures to Pakistan, while slapping tariffs on India and criticizing its Russia ties, reveal a dangerous double game. On one hand, he calls India a "friend" and praises its democracy; on the other, he rewards a country with a track record of harbouring terrorists and undermining regional peace.

For India, this is not just a diplomatic setback but a wake-up call. It must now navigate a complex geopolitical environment where traditional allies may no longer be reliable, and adversaries are being courted by the very powers that once pledged support.