The economist does not expect the US to counter greenback strength
Speaking to CNBC-TV18 Taimur Baig, Chief Economist, Asia And Global Markets Research at Deutsche Bank AG said that there is a secular upswing in global activities which is supported by industrials, among others.
Standing out from the lot, Taimur Baig, Chief Economist, Asia and Global Markets Research at Deutche Bank, says that the new regime will tilt more towards the dovish side.
Considering the slowing growth momentum in US, expectations of no hike are legitimate, says Taimur Baig of Deutsche Bank AG.
Taimur Baig, Chief Economist, Asia Global Markets Research, Deutsche Bank AG says that while one rate hike is expected to be in the offing, more is unlikely to come.
The Shanghai composite tumbled 168 points, or 5.29 percent, to 3,017.99, while the Shenzhen composite plunged 130.61 points, or 6.6 percent, to close at 1,848
Experts believe the central bank will pause for a while now before one can see any rate cut in the near-future.
Baig says RBI‘s problem is not about managing the quantum of rate hikes, but the transmission of those rate cuts to the economy by banks cutting rates.
Singapore`s economy grew at a faster-than-expected pace in the first quarter, government data showed on Tuesday, even as the central bank surprised markets by announcing no change to monetary policy.
Taimur Baig, chief economist, Deutsche Bank says there haven‘t been any major disinflationary moves in the past few months and hence, the March CPI inflation is unlikely to come down.
Rating agency Moody‘s has affirmed India‘s sovereign rating at BAA3, but raised the rating outlook to ‘positive‘ from ‘stable‘.
According to Taimur Baig of Deutsche Bank AG, RBI will not only be looking at what is happening in India, it will also take into account what is happening abroad – expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike and slowdown in China.
The consumer price inflation for January, based on new methodology, came in at 5.11 percent year-on-year, compared to 4.28 percent (also on new base) in December.
In its sixth bi-monthly Monetary Policy review, the Reserve Bank of India kept policy rates unchanged after going ahead with a 25-bps cut just three weeks ago, suggesting government‘s annual budget at the end of this month may hold the key to future action.
Baig believes the December CPI data for India could be seen around 5.5 percent with similar levels expected in January CPI as well. Going ahead, he expects mid to low-5 percent inflation over the next two-three months.
Taimur Baig, Chief Economist, Asia, Global Markets Research at Deutsche Bank AG thinks RBI's 6 percent target for January 2016 may be a tall order but 8 percent target for January 2015 consumer price inflation (CPI) can be met easily.
"There has been a striking breakdown in the relationship between Asia`s exports and demand indicators in the US/European Union," said Taimur Baig, economist at Deustche Bank.
Taimur Baig, Chief Economist of India Global Markets Research at Deutsche Bank believes there is a possibility that in the second quarter, there might be some downside risks – monsoon, power shortage issue, which may hit power production.
According to Taimur Baig, real cut in spending, substantial pickup in revenues and more than USD 500 billion divestment target looks like exceptionally ambitious given the last few years track record of the government
Most analysts expect the world`s second-largest economy to expand at a rate of 7.5 percent in 2014, but Deutsche Bank sees much stronger growth at 8.6 percent.
Taimur Baig, Deutsche Bank says, my base line is no move in December unless we get a couple of ugly CPI and WPI numbers.
RBI will perhaps take 2-3 months to ease rates and rollback measures. Taimur Baig, India Economist, Deutsche Bank sees the rupee at 65 per USD for end of the year. The appreciation related volatility has been extraordinary, so rupee is still not out of the woods.
Deutsche Bank's Taimur Baig believes the RBI does not want to destabilise growth sentiments at the expense of stabilising rupee due to which there may not be much movement in policy rates in the short-term.
Deutsche Bank's Taimur Baig believes the fight on inflation has gone on for a long time and whatever upside risk we see on inflation right now would be temporary
Taimur Baig expects productivity to pick up in the second half and FY14 may close with a 6 percent GDP growth. He feels weak data and declining inflation will force RBI to cut rates in June, July and September monetary policies