India is among the five largest economies on the basis of purchasing power parity. Its economy is much more integrated with the world economy than in the past and it is no longer possible to remain insulated from developments in the global market.
Chinese exports handily beat expectations in January, rising 10.6 percent from a year earlier, while imports jumped 10 percent, leaving the country with a trade surplus of USD 31.9 billion for the month.
In an interview to CNBC-TV18‘s Menaka Doshi and Senthil Chengalvarayan, Arnab Das of Das Capital and UR Bhat, MD of Dalton Capital spoke about the markets and their outlook.
For the equity markets, though the local policy is over, Fed meeting and its decision is equally important, says Vikas Khemani, Edelweiss Securities.
Nandan Chakraborty sees the global liquidity scenario remaining benign even as there are concerns about Fed cutting down on monthly bond purchases, and this resulting in a liquidity crunch.
Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Ananth Narayan of Standard Chartered, says the near-term for the rupee seems stable. However, he says investors should brace for rupee volatility in the first quarter of FY15.
More than the actual tapering, the US Federal Reserve‘s guidance will be of more importance to the market, believes Sunil Garg of JP Morgan.
Gautam Trivedi of Religare said the market is pinning hopes on a BJP win and if the results are below expectations, equity markets won't see a steep downside. The bigger deterrent for the market is QE tapering.
Dan Smith is optimistic on gold for long-term and believes the yellow metal will go above USD 1,400 per ounce level next year.
According to Indranil Pan, the fall in trade deficit will pull down the current account deficit eventually, leading rupee to its fair value at around 61-62/USD against 63-64/USD projected earlier.
"We do feel that there are companies in emerging markets, not just India, but all around the world that should be avoided and can be avoided with some simple research," Peter Elston says.
Speaking to reporters, Uday Kotak, Executive Vice-Chairman & MD Kotak Mahindra Bank spoke on the expectation from the Federal Policy this week, QE tapering and how will that affect the markets.
In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Raamdeo Agrawal, Joint MD of Motilal Oswal Sec speaks about the concerns that are prevailing in the current market scenario.
a good monsoon is a big positive for the Indian economy. The depreciating rupee is also beneficial to some extremely important sectors such as IT and pharma.
Nicholas Ferres of Eastspring Investments says, in an interview to CNBC-TV18, that the fears regarding the taper in the QE programme have already been priced in by emerging markets. Ferres adds that despite slightly higher valuations, he finds the Indian market lucrative enough to attract investment.
The Indian version of Operation Twist is expected to get some sanity back in the market. Banking stocks are at a level where it may see some short-term relief rally. But it will be more sentimental than fundamental because the issues plaguing the sector still exist
Mark Matthews, Bank Julius Baer & Co told CNBC-TV18 that India is not in a financial crisis yet. However, overall he thinks EMs have clearly lost their sheen and will continue to underperform.
Structural problems plaguing market have been there for sometime, only it is more visible now, says Dipen Sheth, Head-Institutional Research, HDFC Securities. Earlier it was hidden under global liquidity flows, he adds.
Forex market analysts believe that the currency may weaken more on the back of strong dollar demand. Employment data from the US has also been strong, which has led to this move, says Ashutosh Raina, head of FX trading at HDFC Bank.
Currently, whichever way you look at it, valuations are extremely expensive, investors should be cautious, asset allocation is going to be the biggest challenge no matter which asset class is looked into
The economic environment hasn't changed much, looking at the last three months. It is more about Quantitative Easing (QE3) tapering, which is leading to this correction in private banks